We’ve looked at rushing and passing touchdown season long prop bets and now move on to the receiving touchdowns prop. Of the three, receiving touchdowns are the least predictable, as you can see by the favorite odds. Travis Kelce leads the way at +1100 while Derrick Henry is at +700 for rushing touchdowns and Patrick Mahomes is at +400 for passing touchdowns.
Looking at past leaders reaffirms how difficult picking the leader is each year. In the late 90s and early’ 00’s, Cris Carter, Randy Moss and Terrell Owens were gobbling up touchdown crowns, but we haven’t had a repeat leader since Moss in 2009, as he led for the fifth and last time. After that season, we’ve seen the leaders vary from Dwayne Bowe, Rob Gronkowski, James Jones, Jimmy Graham, Dez Bryant, Doug Baldwin, Brandon Marshall, Allen Robinson, Jordy Nelson, DeAndre Hopkins, Antonio Brown and last season, Kenny Golladay.
There are plenty or receivers that could take the lead this season. Below, you’ll find my best bets for the receiving touchdowns leader using DraftKings Sportsbook’s odds.
Davante Adams, Packers, +1400
Adams is behind Kelce and Michael Thomas in odds, but he is my favorite this season. Injuries slowed him down last season, but he still ranked third in red zone targets. His touchdowns didn’t live up to those targets, with just 5, but I’m on board with a big bounce back this year. The Packers didn’t draft or sign a starting receiver this offseason, likely giving Adams the most targets in the league this season.
Adam Thielen, Vikings, +3000
Much like Adams, Thielen has no real competition for targets. The Vikings will run the ball plenty, but Thielen is just too locked in to a high target role to forget about. He hasn’t been a big touchdown maker, but he was Top-7 in wide receiver red zone targets in 2018, when he caught nine touchdowns. Last season he missed a chunk of games, but a a healthy Thielen without Stefon Diggs there has yet to have 16 full games of stats.
DeVante Parker, Dolphins, +6600
Parker tied for fourth in touchdown receptions last season with nine as he finally broke out. The Dolphins are thin in wide receiver depth, which should give Parker plenty of targets. Miami threw the ball 11th most in the red zone last season and their defense isn’t likely to let them go all in on the run, especially late in games this year. We’ll see if Parker’s breakout can be sustained, but we know he’s set up for plenty of chances to prove himself again.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (NH/CO) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ (18+ NH). NJ/PA/WV/IN/NH/IA/CO/IL only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.