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NBA DFS breakdown, lineup notes for August 29

Anfernee Simons is the value play that could break Saturdyys three-game main NBA slate. We’ll break down the full slate here.

JR Smith of the Los Angeles Lakers moves the ball against Anfernee Simons of the Portland Trail Blazers during the second quarter in Game Four of the Western Conference First Round during the 2020 NBA Playoffs at AdventHealth Arena at ESPN Wide World Of Sports Complex on August 24, 2020 in Lake Buena Vista, Florida. Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

The NBA playoffs are set to return on Saturday after a two-day hiatus. There’s a three-game main slate scheduled to kick off the weekend, and there are some interesting matchups worth analyzing. I’ll go over my DFS breakdown for classic contests on DraftKings below.

Bucks vs. Magic, 3:30 p.m. ET

Spread: MIL (-13.5)
Over/Under: 227.5
Here’s our Showdown breakdown of this game.

The Bucks are big-time favorites in the first game of the weekend and are expected to close out the Magic. Aaron Gordon has no chance of playing in this series and has left the bubble to deal with a hamstring injury. Milwaukee will likely run away with this game, but Vegas expects this to be the highest-scoring game of the slate. Because of that, I’m big on plays Pat Connaughton ($3,600) as a value play.

Orlando has plenty cheap starters worth stacking. Gary Clark ($4,200) has become everyone’s favorite power forward and is averaging 22.75 DKFP in the series. James Ennis ($4,400) isn’t as exciting because the Magic have plenty of other wings, but Markelle Fultz ($5,100) stands out as most enticing point guard play.

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300) is easily the best play in this game and has hung around his season averages through four games. Nikola Vucevic ($9,200) has dominated the Bucks and is the most enticing center play up for grabs. However, there is some value elsewhere.

Rockets vs. Thunder, 6:30 p.m. ET

Spread: HOU (-5.5)
Over/Under: 226.5
Here’s our Showdown breakdown of this game.

This series got a lot more interesting now that Russell Westbrook ($9,900) is back after taking time off to recover from a quad injury. Westbrook is expected to be at full strength, and his availability has caused James Harden’s ($11,400) price to drop. Some might be lower on Harden because of Houston adding a second high-usage guard, but I think stacking the two could be a good idea. Westbrook’s explosiveness will only open up more opportunities for Harden. Jeff Green’s ($5,400) has continued to rise, but he and P.J. Tucker ($4,400) should stand out as top value plays at center. I’m higher on Green because of his ball handling and outside shooting against a Thunder team that’s struggled to guard him on the perimeter.

If you’re forced to choose between Chris Paul ($8,100) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($7,400), go with SGA. The sophomore guard has found his way since busting in Game 1. He’s shot 48 percent from the field from Game 2 forward and hasn’t dipped below 40 DKFP since his playoff debut.

Trail Blazers vs. Lakers, 9:00 p.m. ET

Spread: LAL (-13.5)
Over/Under: 223.5
Here’s our Showdown breakdown of this game.

CJ McCollum ($8,100) is bound to carry a heavy workload against the Lakers with Damian Lillard out of commission with a knee injury. Some might think stacking cheaper Portland players could yield positive results, but I’m not sure that’ll work if Los Angeles doesn’t have to spend so much energy focusing on Lillard. Gary Trent Jr. ($4,800) has been terrible in his first career playoff series, so I’d lean toward Anfernee Simons ($4,000) being the player to provide an offensive spark.

I don’t expect Anthony Davis ($10,500) to deal with back spasms again, and he’s dominated the Trail Blazers in the post. If this game isn’t a blowout, he’ll likely be the highest scoring player in the matchup.

Lock of the Day: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300)

Expect to see a lot of Antetokounmpo in a closeout game. The reigning MVP’s seen his playing time increase slightly in the playoffs and is the player most likely to exceed 60 DKFP. He’s averaging 1.96 DKFP per game in the postseason.

Sleeper: Anfernee Simons ($4,000)

Simons will see a bump in playing time with Lillard out and isn’t likely to be benched in a blowout. He returned more than 20x value in his first career start last year and will likely be highly rostered if he gets the start. If he comes off the bench, he could be the kind of variance play that sets you apart from the rest of the field.