Update, August 31: Training camp has moved the needle on a few rookies, but we also can’t get too far ahead of ourselves when evaluating dynasty players. A player like Denzel Mims still has a great outlook for his career despite his hamstring problems. And, I actually moved Jalen Reagor up even though he’ll miss a couple games to start his career because he’s looked so good in training camp and he doesn’t have much competition longterm.
Antonio Gibson, Reagor, Joe Burrow, Joshua Kelley, Van Jefferson, DeeJay Dallas, Devin Asiasi and Bryan Edwards all got a bump in this update, as they appear to be proving themselves early in camp. A leg up in your rookie year is something I like to see and put stock into as long as the situation remains good for them to see work from the get go.
Update, August 7: We’ll be updating rankings regularly, but before then, know that Washington RB Antonio Gibson will get a bump with the team releasing Derrius Guice.
Rookies this season will get a crash course in the NFL with a shortened off season and no preseason games due to Covid-19. Thankfully, this season is full of strong rookie dynasty picks and a slower than normal ramp up to the season won’t be as impactful for their longterm success.
But, we do want players who can get on the field their rookie year, and we already have a couple rookies on the Covid-19 injury list. So far Vikings WR Justin Jefferson and the Buccaneers RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn have landed on the list. If their time away lingers deep into training camp or even the season, it will hurt their dynasty rankings. But for now, we’ll take a wait and see approach.
None of the top receivers landed in smash spots, but they’re still so good that their fantasy upside remains as high as it did before they were drafted. Of course, running backs are the quickest to pay dividends for dynasty leagues and much depends on your style of play in dynasty. If you’re always looking for the most longterm value, wide receivers take precedent but getting strong results for 5-6 years and from Day 1 from a running back and then trading him before he starts declining is a good move as well.
If you are flush at running back and are need of wide receivers, I have no problem going with CeeDee Lamb at No. 1, but in the normal course of a dynasty team’s life, I like going with the two top running backs. Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jonathan Taylor top the list based on draft capital and team. In full PPR, Edwards-Helaire is my no-doubt No. 1. He was before Damien Williams opted out this season, but now even more so. Both situations look great, but the Colts uncertainty at quarterback after Rivers leaves is concerning for the offenses longterm upside. The Chiefs on the other hand, are set up for a long stretch with Patrick Mahomes leading the way. Plus, Mahomes had a say in their first round pick, showing his preference for the player and what he can do to help the offense.
Jerry Jeudy landed in a tough spot due to the unknowns surrounding his quarterback, but his ability should make his quarterback better while he gets time to ease into the NFL with Courtland Sutton, KJ Hamler, Noah Fant also needing defensive attention.
Choosing between D’Andre Swift and J.K. Dobbins is tough, but I like Dobbins longterm outlook in Baltimore a bit more, as Mark Ingram is out the door after this season and being a running back with Lamar Jackson taking away defensive interest on the ground and playing on a team that wants to run the ball, puts him ahead of Swift.
The receivers in the second tier are all worthy of first-tier consideration and form a packed group in the second tier with Dobbins, Swift and Cam Akers. Justin Jefferson, Henry Ruggs, and Jalen Reagor round out this tier and give us great wide receivers to grab toward the end of the first or beginning of the second round of rookie drafts.
Overall Rookie Dynasty Rankings
|18||Amon-Ra St. Brown||21||WR||DET|