It was a good overall night of baseball aside from the horrible injury suffered by Mike Soroka, who ended up with a torn Achilles after attempting to cover first. The Braves rotation is in some serious trouble moving forward unless they go out and find an arm. They’ll be in action tonight against the Blue Jays along with nine other games on this 10-game slate.
This piece will cover the main slate that locks at 7:05 p.m. ET. As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Kyle Hendricks, $7,700, CHC (-200) vs. KCR (+170) — Hendricks has had quite the start to the season. He opened the season tossing a complete game shutout against the Brewers and then followed that up by getting wrecked by the Reds for six runs. Maybe something in the middle tonight against the Royals? Hendricks was stellar at Wrigley Field last season, allowing just a .240 wOBA with 2.87 FIP and only six of his 18 home runs. He’s not the most reliable pitcher for strikeouts, logging a 20.5 K% last season but with winds blowing in tonight from left field, I think Hendricks at his $7,700 salary is more than worth it.
Other notable favorites: German Marquez ($8,100; -190) vs. Giants, Andrew Heaney ($8,000; -186) vs. Mariners
Highest Projected Total
SF (+155) vs. COL (-190) 11.5 runs — Don’t let the total fool you, this game is heavily weighted toward the Rockies, who have a 6.5 implied team total compared to the 4.5 of the Giants. The Rockies are big favorites as they send German Marquez ($8,100) to the hill to oppose Kevin Gausman ($5,700). It looks as if Gausman has been quite unlucky thus far, as his 5.40 ERA doesn’t tell the whole story compared to his 2.56 FIP through 8 1⁄3 innings. Nonetheless, it’s hard to trust him at Coors Field, especially against a team with a team total as high as the Rockies have. Last season on the road, Gausman had a .370 wOBA and a 4.80 FIP
Other notable team totals: Angels (5.5) vs. Mariners, Braves (4.5) vs. Blue Jays, Astros (4.5) vs. Diamondbacks
Clear night of baseball!
Splits to Start
Note: This section will show stats for 2019 until Aug. 6.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Steven Matz, .339, 4.84
Kevin Gausman, .329, 4.28
German Marquez .328, 4.57
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Patrick Corbin, .229, 1.77
John Means, .235, 2.96
Madison Bumgarner, .237, 2.63
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Kevin Gausman, .333, 3.73
Max Fried, .326, 3.89
Steven Matz, .321, 4.54
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Dustin May, .210, 2.74
Brandon Woodruff, .240, 2.35
Lance Lynn, .277, 2.95
Pitcher to Build Around
Lance Lynn, TEX at OAK, $9,900 — I don’t know how Lynn is doing it but he’s been as good as you could ask through his first two stats. Facing the Rockies and Diamondbacks, Lynn has thrown 12 shutout innings allowing just three hits and striking out 17. That’s pretty damn impressive. Now he faces an Athletics team that DID score 11 runs last night but has been a very poor offense otherwise. Against righties, the A’s have just a .290 wOBA (22nd) a .102 ISO (27th) and a 23.4 K% (14th). I’m more than willing to use Lynn in this spot.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Alex Bregman, HOU at ARI, $5,000 — This is a such a good spot for Bregman against Bumgarner. He was a nightmare for opposing left-handed pitchers, posting a .473 wOBA with a .393 ISO and 16 of his 41 home runs. As for Bumgarner, when he was with the Giants last season, he struggled on the road allowing a .365 wOBA with a 5.23 FIP and 12 of his 30 home runs allowed. Bregman could easily be a few hundred dollars more.
Save Big by Drafting
Carter Kieboom, WAS vs. NYM, $3,700 — Kieboom is still in search of his first extra base hit of the season but this could be the night going up against Steven Matz ($7,400). When Matz is on the road, he becomes a massive liability, allowing a .366 wOBA with a 6.04 FIP and 19 of his 27 home runs allowed. We’ve yet to see it up in the majors but Kieboom has some good pop and a bit of speed to his game. Last season in Triple-A, Kieboom posted an overall .189 ISO through 109 games.
Favorite Team To Stack
HOU at ARI (Madison Bumgarner) — This is going to be such a tough spot for Bumgarner and I don’t think he’s going to make it very far. The Astros are simply too good against lefties and if he’s not in a cozy ballpark, Bumgarner has really struggled. Behind Bumgarner will also be a shaky D-Backs bullpen thus far this season. Through 35 2⁄3 innings, they’ve allowed a 4.75 FIP and a 15.2 BB%. With those type of numbers, I’d imagine the Astros are going to be getting on base early and often.
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