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Betting splits for NFL Week 1 and how they could influence pick ‘em contests

NFL Week 1 is officially underway. We break down how the public is betting the 15 games on Sunday and Monday, and what it might mean for picks contests.

Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons shaking hands with Russell Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks after winning at the Georgia Dome on January 14, 2017 in Atlanta, Georgia. Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

The 2020 NFL season is upon us, and the time to get your first Sunday picks in is fast approaching. The 1 p.m. slate kicks off in a shade over 24 hours and then it’s off to the races!

The Kansas City Chiefs opened the 2020 season with a 34-20 victory over the Houston Texans, that really wasn’t even that close. The Chiefs led 31-7 at one point, and while the Texans eventually cut the lead to 11, much of that felt like garbage time scoring. They had a modest chance at getting a late backdoor cover on the 9.5-point spread, but they couldn’t recover an onside kick and the Chiefs scored a late field goal to secure the cover.

With Sunday kickoffs fast approach, time is running out to join in the DraftKings Pro Football Pick ‘Em National Championship. If you live in West Virginia, New Hampshire, or New Jersey, you can enter, make five picks a week, and compete to win $1 million.

Contest lines were established on Wednesday and are static. That means that even if there was movement at the book over the past three days, the contest lines don’t change. That could offer value in some games, so it’s worth a look to compare the lines then and now.

First off, here is the full list of lines for the contest. Obviously you can’t pick Texans-Chiefs anymore, but if you picked the Chiefs as one of your five picks this week, congrats on starting 1-0!

Texans @ Chiefs (-9.5)
Dolphins @ Patriots (-6.5)
Browns @ Ravens (-7.5)
Jets @ Bills (-6.5)
Raiders @ Panthers (+3.5)
Seahawks @ Falcons (+1.5)
Eagles @ Washington (+5.5)
Bears @ Lions (-2.5)
Colts @ Jaguars (+7.5)
Packers @ Vikings (-2.5)
Chargers @ Bengals (+3.5)
Cardinals @ 49ers (-6.5)
Buccaneers @ Saints (-3.5)
Cowboys @ Rams (+2.5)
Steelers @ Giants (+5.5)
Titans @ Broncos (+2.5)

Below is a table looking at betting splits for the remaining 15 games on the NFL schedule as of Saturday morning. You can compare the point spread now with the ones above, but also you can look at how the public is betting the spread, money line, and point totals.

Splits aren’t the be-all, end-all, but they do offer a data point worth considering. There are a couple interesting moves over the course of the week. The Colts were -7.5 on Tuesday, but have moved to -8.5 as of Saturday morning on the back of 75 percent of the handle on Indy. Additionally, the Seahawks were -1.5 on Wednesday, but are now -3 on the back of 80 percent of the handle on Seattle. I suspect we see a decent amount of people picking the Seahawks and Colts this weekend. It won’t be entirely because of line movement, but I imagine that will influence some folks.

Here’s a full rundown of Week 1 Sunday and Monday splits.

Week 1 NFL betting splits 2020, Sat AM

Teams Point Spread % Handle % Bets Total Points % Handle % Bets Moneyline % Handle % Bets
Teams Point Spread % Handle % Bets Total Points % Handle % Bets Moneyline % Handle % Bets
CLE Browns +7.5 25% 27% Over 47.5 54% 67% +285 13% 9%
BAL Ravens -7.5 75% 73% Under 47.5 46% 33% -335 87% 91%
IND Colts -8.5 75% 76% Over 45.0 26% 41% -435 94% 90%
JAX Jaguars +8.5 25% 24% Under 45.0 74% 59% +360 6% 10%
PHI Eagles -5.5 88% 86% Over 42.5 50% 58% -245 89% 91%
WAS Football Team +5.5 12% 14% Under 42.5 50% 42% +210 11% 9%
NY Jets +6.5 34% 32% Over 39.5 46% 55% +240 15% 12%
BUF Bills -6.5 66% 68% Under 39.5 54% 45% -278 85% 88%
MIA Dolphins +6.5 31% 42% Over 41.5 58% 58% +260 36% 23%
NE Patriots -6.5 69% 58% Under 41.5 42% 42% -305 64% 77%
CHI Bears +2.5 64% 56% Over 43.0 41% 40% +114 83% 69%
DET Lions -2.5 36% 44% Under 43.0 59% 60% -129 17% 31%
GB Packers +2.5 53% 58% Over 45.0 36% 58% +120 81% 74%
MIN Vikings -2.5 47% 42% Under 45.0 64% 42% -137 19% 26%
SEA Seahawks -3 80% 77% Over 49.0 64% 74% -143 72% 65%
ATL Falcons +3 20% 23% Under 49.0 36% 26% +125 28% 35%
LV Raiders -2.5 70% 67% Over 47.5 66% 56% -143 40% 51%
CAR Panthers +2.5 30% 33% Under 47.5 34% 44% +125 60% 49%
LA Chargers -2.5 58% 58% Over 42.0 28% 54% -143 50% 52%
CIN Bengals +2.5 42% 42% Under 42.0 72% 46% +125 50% 48%
ARI Cardinals +6.5 56% 52% Over 48.0 83% 72% +255 34% 21%
SF 49ers -6.5 44% 48% Under 48.0 17% 28% -295 66% 79%
TB Buccaneers +3.5 53% 57% Over 48.0 88% 89% +150 75% 61%
NO Saints -3.5 47% 43% Under 48.0 12% 11% -175 25% 39%
DAL Cowboys -2.5 64% 78% Over 51.5 69% 56% -139 55% 61%
LA Rams +2.5 36% 22% Under 51.5 31% 44% +123 45% 39%
PIT Steelers -6 86% 81% Over 46.0 22% 43% -245 79% 84%
NY Giants +6 14% 19% Under 46.0 78% 57% +210 21% 16%
TEN Titans -2 77% 79% Over 41.0 59% 80% -159 69% 69%
DEN Broncos +2 23% 21% Under 41.0 41% 20% +140 31% 31%

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