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What betting splits, DFS advice tell us about Newson vs. Costa at UFC Vegas 11

We break down the last-minute bet splits and make some DFS picks for Journey Newson vs. Randy Costa at UFC Vegas 11 on ESPN+.

Opponents Journey Newson and Randy Costa face off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in at UFC APEX on September 18, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Randy Costa and Journey Newson will battle in a bantamweight brawl this Saturday at Las Vegas’ UFC Apex and live on ESPN+. The fight will be part of the preliminary card for UFC Vegas 11.

Journey Newson is 31-years-old and 9-2 in MMA, with three wins via knockout, three via submission and three decisions. Newson’s only fight in 2020 was a no contest, his 38-second knockout of Domingo Pilarte overturned by the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation for a failed drug test. He lands 2.81 per minute with 33 percent accuracy himself. With both of his UFC bouts averaging under eight minutes, this might be over quickly.

Costa enters with a 5-1 record with five KO stoppages and a submission loss, and a 1-1 record in the UFC. An uber-aggressive fighter, he connects on 46 percent of his strikes and has landed 8.05 significant strikes per minute in his two UFC bouts, and takes 5.56. “The Zohan” is just 26 and is looking to become the next bantamweight star.

Betting splits

Here are the betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Journey Newson vs. Randy Costa at UFC Vegas 11 on September 19th:

Journey Newson: -137 (71% of action, 55% of bets)
Randy Costa: +110 (29% of action, 45% of bets)

DraftKings DFS Salaries

Journey Newson: $8,400
Randy Costa: $7,800

Newson is getting a good price, and he’s in there with a fighter not afraid to swing big from his feet. This is the kind of action DFS players want, so mixing in both fighters across rosters might be the play here as the winner likely earns at least 100 points. But if we’re only purchasing one entry, we’ll go with Newson to end it early.

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