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What betting splits, DFS advice tell us about Dern vs. Markos at UFC Vegas 11

We break down the last-minute bet splits and make some DFS picks for Mackenzie Dern vs. Randa Markos at UFC Vegas 11 on ESPN+.

Mackenzie Dern and Randa Markos face off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in at UFC APEX on September 18, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

The #15-ranked women’s strawweight Mackenzie Dern and Randa Markos will be the second main card event at UFC Vegas 11 this Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas and on ESPN+.

Dern enters with an 8-1 record. The 27-year-old started her UFC career on a seven-match win streak before finally dropping one to #12 Amanda Ribas in October of 2019. Five of her eight wins have come from submission and the other three by decision. Her 3.14 strikes per minutes are higher than Markos’ 2.96. In the UFC Dern doesn’t grapple much, landing just .43 takedowns per 15 minutes.

As for Markos, she has a 10-8-1 record and is coming off a loss to Ribas as well. She defeated #13 Angela Hill back in early 2019, and is the more experienced fighter with this being her 20th UFC match. With 1.35 takedowns per round and four wins by submission, she’s clearly more of a grappler than Markos.

Both will enter the bout standing 5-foot-4 and having a 63-inch reach so physically there is little separating the two, but Dern tends to enter the ring much heavier than her weigh-in weight, and is eight years younger.

Betting splits

Here are the betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Mackenzie Dern vs. Randa Markos at UFC Vegas 11 on September 19th:

Mackenzie Dern: -177 (86% of action, 86% of bets)
Randa Markos: +140 (14% of action, 14% of bets)

DraftKings DFS Salaries

Mackenzie Dern: $8,700
Randa Markos: $7,500

Dern made weight with ease in the division she’s owned when she fights at it. At 105 lbs. she’s a monster, and will probably be closer to 120 once the cage door closes. Her last two submission wins have averaged 105 DFS points each. We’ll ride with Dern here.

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