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What betting splits, DFS advice tell us about Covington vs. Woodley at UFC Vegas 11

We break down the last-minute bet splits and make some DFS picks for Colby Covington vs. Tyron Woodley at UFC Vegas 11 on ESPN+.

Colby Covington and Tyron Woodley face off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in at UFC APEX on September 18, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Perhaps the premiere non-pay-per-view fight in the UFC this year is the main event of UFC Vegas 11 as #2 Colby Covington takes on #5 Tyron Woodley at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.

This will be the first time Covington competes since losing to now welterweight champion Kamaru Usman. With a 15-2 record, “Chaos” had won his previous seven fights, two of which were against ranked opponents. Averaging 4.91 takedowns per 15 minutes, Covington is a dominant grappler, landing 51 percent of his attempts. The 5-foot-11 orthodox-stance fighter will be giving up two inches in reach to Woodley.

As for Woodley, he’s an older fighter at 38. With a 19-5 MMA record, “The Chosen One” also has his fair share of high-profile bouts, having lost to Usman and #1 Gilbert Burns in his last two fights. The former champion in the division blocks 56 percent of opponent’s strikes and 90 percent of opponent’s takedown attempts. His striking numbers aren’t astonishing, but he does land 2.38 significant strikes per minute with 49 percentage accuracy.

Betting splits

Here are the betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Colby Covington vs. Tyron Woodley at UFC Vegas 11 on September 19th:

Colby Covington: -360 (44% of action, 61% of bets)
Tyron Woodley: +275 (56% of action, 39% of bets)

DraftKings DFS Salaries

Colby Covington: $9,300
Tyron Woodley: $6,900

If you’re going to fly an underdog for cap room, Woodley would be a good one to use. He can certainly use his ability in the clench to frustrate the favored opponent, and if he can get to the end it’s possible he scores enough were the salary dollars you save can be used elsewhere.

For all of his trash-talking, before losing to Usman, Covington was involved five straight decisions. That’s not great for DFS purposes.

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