UPDATE, Thursday PM: The Jaguars have downgraded wide receiver D.J. Chark to OUT for Thursday night. Keelan Cole and Laviska Shenault both get a bump in value for the game.
The Jacksonville Jaguars host the Miami Dolphins to open Week 3 on Thursday Night Football, and this is a tough one to predict. Neither team is particularly good, but both have shown some life and been better than expected.
The Jaguars are 1-1 having beaten the Colts in Week 1 and nearly upended the Titans in Week 2. The Dolphins are 0-2 but gave the Patriots a modest scare in Week 1 and gave the Bills a serious scare in Week 2. Both are likely to be picking at the top end of the draft next April, but they’re showing enough life that this could turn into a fun matchup.
The Jaguars are favored by a field goal, with an over/under of 48. Last week, the Bengals and Browns had an over/under of 43.5, and the game turned out much better than expected. I think we see both passing games air it out, and even with some mistakes on both sides, it should still be fun and provide some fantasy football value.
Below, we’ll take a look at who to start and sit in a regular 12-team .5 PPR league.
Mike Gesicki, TE, Dolphins
After a relatively quiet Week 1, Gesicki exploded on the scene in Week 2, catching eight passes for 130 yards and a touchdown in a 31-28 loss to the Bills. Through two weeks, the Jaguars have given up the third most fantasy points per game to tight ends. DeVante Parker is a bit banged up and it would seem Ryan Fitzpatrick is finding a rhythm with Gesicki.
Keelan Cole, WR, Jaguars
D.J. Chark is questionable for the game with a chest and back injury. He likely will play, but at a little less than full strength, it could open the door for the rest of the Jaguars pass-catchers. Cole leads the team with 11 receptions and two touchdowns, and is second with 105 receiving yards. The Dolphins defense ranked 32nd in efficiency against the pass and has given up the fourth most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers through two weeks.
Tyler Eifert, TE, Jaguars
Eifert found the end zone last week and when healthy has a solid floor in deeper leagues. However, in Week 3, he’s facing a Dolphins defense that is defending tight ends fairly well. Miami doesn’t do a lot of things well, but they are giving up the third fewest fantasy points per game to the tight end position.
Dolphins running backs
The Jaguars are 10th worst in fantasy points allowed to running backs, but the Dolphins’ platoon is not a great fantasy option. Myles Gaskin is the lead back in terms of snaps and touches, but he’s not getting nearly enough work to develop into a productive fantasy back. This past week, he led the team with 13 touches for 82 yards and the prior week he had 13 touches for 66 yards. There’s some PPR value with ten receptions over the first two weeks, but he’s a flex at best in deeper PPR leagues. Matt Breida and Jordan Howard are struggling to get much of anything going leaving them as unusable for the time being.