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Tyler Herro’s NBA Finals MVP odds become very interesting after Game 4

Heat rookie SG dropped a career-high 37 points to make the Eastern Conference Finals 3-1 Miami. His Finals MVP odds have gone up as a result. We take a look.

Jae Crowder and Tyler Herro of the Miami Heat smile and celebrate on the court after Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Boston Celtics on September 23, 2020 in Orlando, Florida at AdventHealth Arena.  Photo by Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images

On Wednesday night, we saw one of the all-time playoff shooting performances by an unlikely source. Miami Heat rookie guard Tyler Herro put on a clinic by going 14-of-21 from the floor and 5-of-10 from downtown for a career-high 37 points in the 112-109 win in Game 4. The Heat are now up in the Eastern Conference Finals 3-1 over the Boston Celtics and have a chance to go to the finals on Friday.

Watching Herro operate last night, it was the type of performance we’re used to seeing from great shooters in the postseason. Guys like Ray Allen, Reggie Miller, Peja Stojakovic, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. That’s some pretty incredible company for a rookie SG coming off the bench. Herro’s ascension into the pantheon of great playoff shooters isn’t complete. The question is: Would a trip to the finals and another few great shooting games put Herro over the top? So much so that he’d be in the thick of the NBA Finals MVP race? Let’s see.

Looking at the Finals MVP odds, we saw some big movement on Herro’s number after last night. Take a look at the movement over the past week or so. A day before Game 4, Herro’s odds to win Finals MVP were all the way down at 100/1. Now they’re up to 40/1 after the big game. Despite not getting big value on Herro to take home the award, 40/1 is still pretty out there.

With the Heat looking like they’ll most likely represent the East, I don’t see a more valuable bet than Herro to win Finals MVP. It felt like last night Herro got hot and everybody just fed him the ball. Jimmy Butler is unselfish, Bam Adebayo is unselfish, Goran Dragic is unselfish. Herro is going to play crunch time and big minutes off the bench. If he can stay hot the rest of the postseason, why not Herro for Finals MVP? No offense to Butler, Bam and Dragic, but those three aren’t on the same level as LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Nikola Jokic. If the Heat get to the Finals, they’ll have a shot at winning. If that’s the case, it’s more wide-open than other teams’ candidates.

There’s also a lot to like about the potential matchups in the Finals for Miami. If the Lakers come out of the West, Herro matching up against a thin bench seems like cake. Guys like Alex Caruso and Danny Green trying to chase around Herro makes my mouth water. On the other side, the Nuggets have Gary Harris and Torrey Craig to throw at Herro. That’s a bit better, but realistically the Lakers make it out of the West, right? If that’s the case, Herro should feast off the bench.

This has been a weird postseason for everyone. It’s been unconventional outside of the Lakers still being in it. Nobody thought the Nuggets would be around. Nobody thought the Heat would be this dominant. Nobody thought a guy like Tyler Herro would steal out hearts in one night. So just like looking at the championship market or the finals matchup market before the bubble, we should be looking at guys like Herro in the finals MVP market now rather than after we know he’ll be there in a week.

Tyler Herro NBA Finals MVP odds movement

Odds Date
Odds Date
10000 9/16
8000 9/18
10000 9/23
4000 9/24

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