The main event of UFC 253 is Israel Adesanya vs. Paulo Costa for the middleweight championship of the world. Adesanya does come in as a slight favorite and being the incumbent has its perks with the betting public.
Adesanya, while the favorite, will face another undefeated fighter in Paulo Costa and this should be one of his toughest match ups to date. Adesanya is 19-0 and Costa is 13-0. As a point of comparison, both are coming off victories against Yoel Romero. Adesanya defeated Romero far more recently at UFC 248 in March, a five-round fight that ended in a unanimous decision, while Costa has not stepped into the Octagon since he dominated Romero in a three-round unanimous decision in August 2019.
With Costa, ring rust could be an issue since his last fight was over a year ago. Still his great body shape and cardio will be an asset against a similarly well-rounded fighter. Range will also be a contributing factor tonight. Adesanya has around eight inches on his opponent at 80” - 72,” and this will be one thing to keep a close eye on.
This is a real toss up main event fight.
Here are the betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Israel Adesanya vs. Paulo Costa at UFC 253 on September 26th.
Betting splits
Israel Adesanya: -182, (66% of action, 56% of bets)
Paulo Costa: +150, (34% of action, 44% of bets)
Winning method splits
Here are the splits for the method of victory at DraftKings Sportsbook for Israel Adesanya vs. Paulo Costa at UFC 253 on September 26th:
Fights
Outcome | Odds | % Handle | % Bets |
---|---|---|---|
Outcome | Odds | % Handle | % Bets |
Paulo Henrique Costa By KO, TKO or DQ | +215 | 35% | 25% |
Israel Adesanya By Decision | +300 | 26% | 24% |
Israel Adesanya By KO, TKO or DQ | +140 | 22% | 23% |
Paulo Henrique Costa By Decision | +750 | 8% | 7% |
Israel Adesanya By Submission | +2000 | 4% | 9% |
Paulo Henrique Costa By Submission | +1600 | 3.7% | 7% |
Tie | +6600 | 1.8% | 4% |
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