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How the public is betting Israel Adesanya vs. Paulo Henrique Costa

Israel Adesanya defends his middleweight title against Paulo Henrique Costa in the main event of UFC 253 at Fight Island on September 26th. We break down how the betting public is picking the fight.

UFC 253: Adesanya v Costa Press Conference Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC

The main event of UFC 253 is Israel Adesanya vs. Paulo Costa for the middleweight championship of the world. Adesanya does come in as a slight favorite and being the incumbent has its perks with the betting public.

Adesanya, while the favorite, will face another undefeated fighter in Paulo Costa and this should be one of his toughest match ups to date. Adesanya is 19-0 and Costa is 13-0. As a point of comparison, both are coming off victories against Yoel Romero. Adesanya defeated Romero far more recently at UFC 248 in March, a five-round fight that ended in a unanimous decision, while Costa has not stepped into the Octagon since he dominated Romero in a three-round unanimous decision in August 2019.

With Costa, ring rust could be an issue since his last fight was over a year ago. Still his great body shape and cardio will be an asset against a similarly well-rounded fighter. Range will also be a contributing factor tonight. Adesanya has around eight inches on his opponent at 80” - 72,” and this will be one thing to keep a close eye on.

This is a real toss up main event fight.

Here are the betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Israel Adesanya vs. Paulo Costa at UFC 253 on September 26th.

Betting splits

Israel Adesanya: -182, (66% of action, 56% of bets)
Paulo Costa: +150, (34% of action, 44% of bets)

Winning method splits

Here are the splits for the method of victory at DraftKings Sportsbook for Israel Adesanya vs. Paulo Costa at UFC 253 on September 26th:


Outcome Odds % Handle % Bets
Outcome Odds % Handle % Bets
Paulo Henrique Costa By KO, TKO or DQ +215 35% 25%
Israel Adesanya By Decision +300 26% 24%
Israel Adesanya By KO, TKO or DQ +140 22% 23%
Paulo Henrique Costa By Decision +750 8% 7%
Israel Adesanya By Submission +2000 4% 9%
Paulo Henrique Costa By Submission +1600 3.7% 7%
Tie +6600 1.8% 4%
Adesanya v Costa

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