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Why you should take the Chiefs against the spread on MNF

The Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs are underdogs at Baltimore on Monday Night Football.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes throws a pass against the Los Angeles Chargers during the fourth quarter at SoFi Stadium. Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

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The Kansas City Chiefs head to Baltimore to take on the Ravens to wrap up Week 3 of the NFL season. These two met in Week 3 last year in Kansas City and had a barn burner of a game with Kansas City coming out on top 33-28 and controlling the game throughout. The Ravens went on to lose their next game to the Browns and then going to overtime the next week against the Mason Rudolph led Steelers. It was the Ravens rock bottom last season, but they went on to win the rest of their regular season games.

The Chiefs come into this game after being taken to the wire by the Los Angeles Chargers while the Ravens have decimated the Browns and Texans so far, scoring 71 points and allowing 22. The Ravens are home favorites in this game, as they are favored by 3.5-points. The total is set at 53.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

ATS Pick: Chiefs

I’ve gone every which way you can on this game, but I’ve landed on betting the champs as 3.5-point underdogs. Move that line to a field goal or under, and it gets a little dicier, but giving Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes points doesn’t seem fair.

The Ravens have looked better so far, but I still like the Chiefs as a team that can win at more levels than the Ravens. But, the Ravens are a team that can get you on your heels and run right over you, giving you little chance to recover. This game should be a slug fest, with both teams on point offensively. The game could very well come down to who has the ball last.

When we look at the ATS trends, they favor the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is 5-0-1 ATS when an underdog and has won four of those games outright. Lamar Jackson is 5-10-1 ATS as a home favorite. We can’t put too much into these numbers when two heavyweights matchup, but considering the Ravens won’t have a big home field advantage due to lack of crowd noise, the 3.5 points just seems too high.

This isn’t a game I feel strongly about either way, which pushes me toward the underdog and the extra points, as I could see this as a pick’em game.