After a short break, we have NBA player props to go over! It was a bit of a disappointing end to the conference finals round as far as props went, but we did OK in the end, breaking about even. It’s a new beginning in the 2020 NBA Finals between the Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat. New life! So let’s get into some of our favorite player prop bets for Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Wednesday night.
Anthony Davis to be top point scorer (+110)
My thinking here is we have AD’s O/U points set at 28.5 (+100), so if AD is going to score over that threshold, there’s a decent chance he leads this game in scoring. So we get a little extra juice on the number by just taking AD to outscore everyone else. I think the Lakers figured out what makes them successful early on and it’s getting Davis the ball.
I’m interested to see if Dwight Howard sticks in the starting lineup and plays 20+ minutes in this series. If that’s the case, AD can focus more on offense than defense. I think the Heat will be more bullish on LeBron and throw Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala on him. There should be more spots where AD has a mismatch than LeBron. I’m not really worried about anyone on the Heat outscoring AD other than maybe a hot Tyler Herro. So if this is essentially AD vs. LeBron, give me Davis.
LeBron James over 9.5 rebounds (-107)
In the playoffs, LeBron is 9-6 on hitting the over for this rebounding total. The line is pretty good and I think this matchup is great for James to get rebounds in bunches. I could see the Heat going behind early potentially and all those forced shots just means more rebounding opportunities for LeBron. We saw the type of totals guys like Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum were putting up against the Heat last round. James is much bigger than Brown and the Celtics swingman was doing work on the boards. Also, if we get the same LeBron from Game 5 of the conference finals, a triple-double could be in the works. That gets us to the over here.
Tyler Herro under 15.5 points (-110)
It pains me to have to get on this number. I would love for Herro to come out and light the basket on fire but I just don’t see it against the Lakers. It’s also worth noting that Herro usually gets off to a slow start in each series. He hasn’t scored over 15 points in each of three Game 1s in the postseason. If I’m Lakers coach Frank Vogel, the one person I’m not going to let get anything in this series is Herro. L.A. also has pretty decent wing defenders in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and LeBron. I wonder if we see James guard Herro late in games to force weaker shooters like Goran Dragic and Jimmy Butler beat them. The better Herro prop would be over 2.5 3-pointers at +110 if you do think he’ll be OK.
Danny Green over 1.5 3-pointers (-107)
Because Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s prop in the 3-point market isn’t appealing at all anymore (O1.5 -148), I’m hopping on Danny Green in hopes he’ll step up in the finals. Green has been here before. He won a title with the Raptors last season. He won a title with the Spurs back in 2013-14. In 15 playoff games this year, he’s hitting 1.9 treys while attempting 5.1 outside shots per game, so if the averages ring true, we should get to the over. The Heat will be aggressive on defense but that could just leave Green open for more corner 3s off of LeBron drives or AD double-teams.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (NH/CO) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ (18+ NH). NJ/PA/WV/IN/NH/IA/CO/IL only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.