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YouGov Poll puts Biden ahead in Wisconsin

The lead for the former Vice President in Wisconsin appears to be getting more solid, and leaving a thinner path for President Trump to victory.

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden boards an airplane at New Castle Airport September 07, 2020 in New Castle, Delaware. Biden is traveling to Harrisburg, Pennsylvania for a Labor Day virtual event with AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka and union members. Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

A swing state that’s getting a bit less swingy appears to be Wisconsin, where Joe Biden is shoring up his numbers in the Badger State.

According to a new poll from YouGov, former Vice President Biden leads President Trump 50%-44% amongst 1,006 registered voters in Wisconsin. Of those voters, 78% said they’re “very strong” and have decided who they’ll be voting for, with another 17% saying they’re “strong” and probably won’t change their mind. That means if this poll is accurate, Trump will need to flip some strong Biden voters to win the state’s 10 electoral votes.

87% of respondents said they will “definitely vote” in the election, with 7% saying will “probably vote.” 84% also say they feel “very motivated” to vote. And because “all politics is local” is not just a saying, a question about the recent events in Kenosha, Wisconsin seems to be having an effect on the race:

“Do you like or dislike how Joe Biden has talked about the recent events in Kenosha, Wisconsin?”

Like: 39%
Dislike: 32%
Didn’t hear or see it: 28%

“Do you like or dislike how Donald Trump has talked about the recent events in Kenosha, Wisconsin?”

Like: 40%
Dislike: 47%
Didn’t hear or see it: 13%

It also appears the 2020’ness of 2020 might be hurting the incumbent, as these are the answers to the question “Generally speaking, do you feel things in America today are going...”

Very well: 6%
Somewhat well: 19%
Somewhat badly: 32%
Very badly: 43%

It’s still too early to have this considered formative, with three debates and 57 days until all ballots are cast. But things certainly seem to be trending towards the Vice President for now in a crucial state for both parties.

In other polling news:

* A USC Dornsife poll, rated B/C by FiveThirtyEight.com, shows Biden leading 52%-41% nationally from a sample of 2,588 likely voters taken between August 31 and September 6.

* A Rasmussen poll of Wisconsin, a polling company that tends to lean towards Republicans, has Biden actually leading 53%-45% in Wisconsin. The difficulty with Rasmussen polling is almost a meme at this point, and is only graded a “C” by FiveThirtyEight.

* The eventual winner in Idaho and California is never in doubt, but if you’re curious about the margins: Spry Strategies has Idaho 60%-34% in favor of President Trump, with California 56%-39% for Biden.

This is all excellent info for those participating in DraftKings Sportsbook’s $100,000 Presidential Election pool, which is free to enter and asks participants to select the winner of 11 states as well as the overall election.