Yesterday was not any ordinary Tuesday. It marked us as exactly eight weeks away from the 2020 Presidential election. Debates are still to come up, but we are quickly entering the final stretch of one of the most contested Presidential elections in American history.
The folks at Morning Consult marked the occasion by releasing a large swath of polls across the country. The polling included a national poll and 11 state polls. The national poll has Joe Biden up 50-44, which is narrower than its peak in August.
National polls are interesting, but the state polls are where it gets interesting given the nature of the Electoral College. Notably, Morning Consult has Joe Biden and Kamala Harris with leads outside their margin of error in Wisconsin (51-43), Florida (50-45), Michigan (52-42) and Pennsylvania (50-45). Meanwhile, Donald Trump and Mike Pence have a 50-45 lead in Ohio, which is outside their margin of error. The remaining states are all within the margin of error. The breakdown is as follows:
Arizona: Biden 49-46
Colorado: Biden 49-43
Georgia: Trump 48-46
Minnesota: Biden 49-44
North Carolina: Biden 48-47
FiveThirtyEight tracks and grades polls throughout the election, and the site grades Morning Consult as a B/C. A-graded Marist College came out with a pair of Pennsylvania specific polls that back up Biden’s lead outside the margin of error. A poll of likely voters have Biden and Harris leading 53-44 (margin of error 4.4), while a poll of adults and registered voters has Biden and Harris leading 52-44 (margin of error 3.8).
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