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NBA DFS breakdown, lineup notes for September 9

If the Raptors can put up a fight with their backs against the wall, stacking lineups with their players could be ideal for Wednesday’s main slate.

Kyle Lowry of the Toronto Raptors dribbles the ball during the first quarter against the Boston Celtics in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Second Round during the 2020 NBA Playoffs at The Field House at the ESPN Wide World Of Sports Complex on September 07, 2020 in Lake Buena Vista, Florida. Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

Thursday’s two-game main NBA slate could start with the elimination of the Toronto Raptors, as they are down 3-2 in their second-round series against the Boston Celtics. This matchup has a ton of DFS upside, as the defending champions will likely give reserves fewer minutes than usual in an attempt to keep their season alive. We’ll go over some of the best plays of the slate below.

Raptors vs. Celtics, 6:30 p.m. ET

Spread: BOS (-3.5)
Over/Under: 209
Here’s our Showdown breakdown of this game.

I talked myself into believing the Raptors would play inspired basketball in game 5 of this series and stacked most of my linueps with key players like Kyle Lowry ($8,200), Fred VanVleet ($7,500), and OG Anunoby ($5,700). They all let me down in what turned out to be a blowout win for the Celtics. That won’t stop me from coming back for more though, as I expect Toronto to play core of Lowry, VanVleet, and Pascal Siakam ($7,800) for more than 40 minutes if the game remains close. I think plugging in the Raptors’ starting backcourt could be essential to cashing on Thursday, but Anunoby is a quality substitute for Siakam to save salary. Siakam has struggled to get going against Jaylen Brown.

I don’t think Jayson Tatum ($9,300) is worth paying up for in this one. He’s yet to return 5x value once in this series but remains the third most expensive player in the slate. Cheaper plays like Marcus Smart ($6,500) and Daniel Theis ($5,400) are the safest options on the Celtics and could return big-time value together.

Clippers vs. Nuggets, 9:00 p.m. ET

Spread: LAC (-8)
Over/Under: 220
Here’s our Showdown breakdown of this game.

The two players I’m targeting in this game are Nikola Jokic ($9,900) and Paul George ($8,500). Jokic is coming off back-to-back performances with at least 60 DKFP but remains cheaper than Kawhi Leonard ($10,300). George appears to have found his shooting strong after a subpar series against the Dallas Mavericks.

Michael Porter Jr. ($5,200) stands out as one of the more desirable bench players in this one. Denver needs his offense. He chucked up 17 shots in a double-double performance his last time out and finished with 18 points and 10 rebounds in 23 minutes. His price has dropped significantly since the seeding games, and I think he could return big-time value if the Nuggets’ role players continue to struggle chipping on offense.

Lock of the Day: Kyle Lowry ($8,200)

Lowry is the heart and soul of Toronto, and there’s no way he doesn’t come out aggressively in this game after scoring 10 points on eight field goal attempts in his last game. He’ll likely be one of the more popular plays of the day, but is guaranteed to play a ridiculous amount of minutes.

Value Pick: Chris Boucher ($3,000)

Serge Ibaka ($5,500) is set to play after being listed as questionable because of an ankle injury, but his condition could be something to monitor. Boucher is cheap and returned big-time value in seeding games thanks to his versatile offensive game and energy. If Ibaka becomes a lacks mobility and Marc Gasol needs spot minutes from the bench, Boucher could see more run than usual.