The Tennessee Titans topped the Baltimore Ravens as road underdogs in the playoffs last year but will host a rematch for Sunday’s first Wil Card Round game. The Titans narrowly edged out the Indianapolis Colts to win the AFC South to earn home-field advantage but don’t have the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Ravens are favored at -177 despite having lost two straight home games to the Titans. I like Tennessee’s chances to cover the spread and extend their winning streak against Baltimore to three games.
ATS Pick: Titans +3
Tennessee’s defense has been suspect this season but its explosive offense makes up for that weakness. The Titans scored the fourth-most points in the NFL this year and two-time rushing champ Derrick Henry has a lot to do with that. Henry eclipsed 2,000 rushing yards for 2020 in Week 17 and has eclipsed 100 rushing yards in seven of his last 10 games. He’s tallied 328 rushing yards and a score on 58 carries in his last two meetings with Buffalo and is sure to get a steady diet of touches.
Henry will be the focal point of the Titans’ offense but their dynamic wideouts — AJ Brown and Corey Davis — make them a force to be reckoned with in the passing game. Tannehill, Brown, and Davis have combined for 23 scores on the year. Having those weapons to pair with a runner as relentless as Henry gives the home team an edge. Especially since the Ravens have been far more inconsistent on offense.
Baltimore is the only team that rushed for more yards than Tennessee during the regular season thanks to Lamar Jackson’s second straight year with over 1,000 yards on the ground. However, the Ravens ranked dead last in passing yards and didn’t have a legitimate WR1 for most of the year. Marquise Brown’s disappearing act came to an end for the finals six weeks of the regular season and having more than one viable pass-catcher will be essential to the Ravens’ offensive gameplan. I’m not sold on Baltimore’s playmakers on the outside. Not a single Ravens receiver eclipsed 30 yards against the Titans earlier this season.
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