Winning tournaments takes some luck, but you have to set yourself up for that luck to work out to a big payday. In smaller slates like these during the playoffs, predicting rostership percentages for each player and then fading the correct higher percentage players is key to winning.
Fading a player in GPPs (tournaments) doesn’t mean you don’t play him at all, but it can mean playing him on 20 percent of your lineups versus 80 percent. You can go full contrarian if you want, but hedging into the perfect lineup is fine as well.
Cam Akers, RB, Rams, $5,700
Fade Cam Akers? Are you crazy? Probably, but this is a situation where everything appears to be positive for the rookie running back, which means he is more than likely going to be the most played back on the slate. Akers has been on fire of late, putting up big numbers in tougher matchups on paper than he’ll get with the Packers. His salary is third-highest with just four teams playing, so that makes him even more likely to be heavily rostered. Yes, you can use him as a free space in your lineup, and try to set your lineup apart other places, but you’ll never be as contrarian than to fade Akers here.
Are we fading him just because he’s going to be on most rosters? Yes, in part. But, I’ve also seen plenty of poor run defenses on good teams come up big in the playoffs. The Packers were a bad run defense all season, but they face a Rams team that can’t throw the ball well and could be without Cooper Kupp. Yes, that means they’ll run the ball a lot, but the Packers will be able to bring defenders closer to the line and concentrate on Akers. They’ve also been playing better of late, as they’ve allowed the seventh-fewest DK points to running backs over the last eight weeks, which includes holding Derrick Henry to 93 yards and no touchdowns on 23 carries and then David Montgomery to 22 carries for 69 yards and a touchdown the following week.
Akers will probably reach value at his mid-sized salary, but another blow up game isn’t assured, especially if Aaron Rodgers and company can get off to an early lead over the undermanned Rams.
Marquise Brown, WR, Ravens, $5,200
The wide receiver rostership percentages don’t have one player we can say will obviously be the most popular, as Davante Adams and Stefon Diggs will both face tough pass defenses and there aren’t any slam dunk options after those two. In the end, Brown may be the highest rostered receiver, as his price isn’t bad and he’s been playing extremely well of late. Early in the season, if he didn’t score a long touchdown, he was fairly useless in fantasy, but his target numbers have gone up and he even topped 22 DK points last week without getting into the end zone.
Yes, he’s a good play, but, is he good enough to stick with the public this week? At his price, I’m not going to fade him completely, as his upside is too good, but, his popularity coupled with his sometimes inconsistent, boom or bust play, and Tre’Davious White on the other side, has me fading in the majority of GPPs.