Winning tournaments takes some luck, but you have to set yourself up for that luck to work out to a big payday. In smaller slates like these during the playoffs, predicting rostership percentages for each player and then fading the correct higher percentage players is key to winning.
This Sunday slate is full of high-scoring offenses, as both games have over/unders topping 51-points. That likely means a player or two that is expected to go off, will end up with a mediocre game. Picking that player to fade is a big part of winning GPPs, and picking that right player, who also has big rostership numbers is even better.
The early game has the Cleveland Browns at Kansas City, where the Chiefs are favored by 10-points with a 56.5 point over/under.
The late game has the Tampa Bay Buccaneers heading to New Orleans to take on the Saints, who are favored by 3-points. The over/under is set at 51.5 points.
Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints, $7,600
Fading Kamara isn’t going to feel so good in the gut, but I’m giving it a go this week against the Buccaneers. The No. 1 scoring PPR running back in the league isn’t a player you fade lightly, but the matchup is tough while Kamara should still be heavily rostered.
Kamara scored three touchdowns in two games against Tampa Bay this season, but, he also rushed 21 times for just 56 yards for 2.7 yards per carry in those two games. He caught ten passes for 60 yards for just six yards per reception as well. If he doesn’t get into the end zone, his stats look mighty pedestrian and touchdowns are extremely difficult to predict.
Nick Chubb, RB, Browns, $6,500
Chubb is a big play waiting to happen, so that puts him easily on the GPP radar, but I also see DFS players giving him a high rostership percentage this week against a Chiefs defense that is weak against running backs.
On the season, running backs have scored the 11th most DK points against the Chiefs, but have only scored seven rushing touchdowns. A big percentage of the running back points come through the air, with the Chiefs allowing the third most receiving yards and touchdowns to the position.
Chubb does see work in the passing game, but it is sporadic, with just 15 targets in 12 games during the regular season. If you think that the Chiefs will get up fast on the Browns this week, Chubb could lose more work than usual to Kareem Hunt. Fading Chubb would likely push you to play a Patrick Mahomes/Tyreek Hill stack.