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With a couple of games postponed for Friday night, we have eight games going on in the NBA. There aren’t a ton of big-time matchups to go over but there’s plenty of action to get in on. The biggest game on the slate is a matchup between the two MVP favorites: Luka Doncic vs. Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Dallas Mavericks and Milwaukee Bucks will face each other and we’ll see if Dallas can get some more bodies back into the lineup. Every team has seemingly been dealing with health and safety protocols ruling players out. Let’s break down some betting splits early on in the day from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Note: Splits for the Los Angeles Lakers vs. New Orleans Pelicans game aren’t available due to injury report.
Spread analysis
The most lopsided point spread handle percentage is in the Boston Celtics-Orlando Magic contest. The Celtics are getting 97 percent of the early handle on the -3.5 spread. This number is way too low for a team that should have most of its players back in the lineup. Normally, Boston would be favored by at least 6-7 points against the Magic at home. You could argue the spread should be double digits.
Most of the handle in Bucks-Mavs is on the Bucks at -6.5, a number which has moved up. The percentage of the bets, however, are leaning toward the Mavericks on the spread. That’s the power of Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis returned to the lineup and looked good a few nights back. Dallas generally keeps games competitive, so monitor the injury report to see if the Mavs will get Josh Richardson, Jalen Brunson, Dorian Finney-Smith and/or Maxi Kleber back.
Over/Under analysis
The two biggest leans are Celtics-Magic under and Chicago Bulls-Oklahoma City Thunder on the over. The Magic-Celtics total is at 213, which is very low by today’s standards. It makes sense if players will be held out and considering the Magic don’t have an imposing offense. Both teams play above-average defensively.
The Bulls haven’t played in a bit after their game early in the week vs. the Celtics was postponed. The Thunder worry me since their offense has been poor. The thing is Chicago doesn’t play great defense and plays up in pace. The number is set at 225 and the spread is essentially a pick ‘em, which means the game has overtime potential. If the game is close, it should go back and forth and that’s the thinking of the public.
Moneyline analysis
The three biggest tilts early on are Clippers over Kings, Bulls over Thunder and Celtics over Magic in terms of ML handle and betting. The Clippers take on a Kings team that has lost five of seven games. Los Angeles has a few injuries that could play a factor. Not that the Kings would be able to pull off an upset, but the spread may be worth considering if Lou Williams and/or Patrick Beverley are sidelined.
The Bulls have played some decent ball and Zach LaVine was on fire before the game vs. the Celtics was postponed. Bulls coach Billy Donovan will face his former squad for the first time. If the Bulls can get back players from health and safety protocols, they’ll have plenty of depth to deal with a weak Thunder team.
NBA Betting Splits, Jan. 15
| Teams | Point Spread | % Handle | % Bets | Total Points | % Handle | % Bets | Moneyline | % Handle | % Bets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teams | Point Spread | % Handle | % Bets | Total Points | % Handle | % Bets | Moneyline | % Handle | % Bets |
| NY Knicks | -3 | 45% | 72% | Over 197.5 | 21% | 60% | -148 | 74% | 56% |
| CLE Cavaliers | 3 | 55% | 28% | Under 197.5 | 79% | 40% | +123 | 26% | 44% |
| ORL Magic | 3.5 | 3% | 6% | Over 213.0 | 8% | 54% | +130 | 16% | 16% |
| BOS Celtics | -3.5 | 97% | 94% | Under 213.0 | 92% | 46% | -155 | 84% | 84% |
| DAL Mavericks | 6.5 | 31% | 52% | Over 228.0 | 76% | 67% | +205 | 37% | 33% |
| MIL Bucks | -6.5 | 69% | 48% | Under 228.0 | 24% | 33% | -250 | 63% | 67% |
| CHI Bulls | 0 | 84% | 60% | Over 225.0 | 93% | 67% | -109 | 83% | 69% |
| OKC Thunder | 0 | 16% | 40% | Under 225.0 | 7% | 33% | -109 | 17% | 31% |
| MEM Grizzlies | 2 | 75% | 49% | Over 224.5 | 60% | 52% | +107 | 70% | 59% |
| MIN Timberwolves | -2 | 25% | 51% | Under 224.5 | 40% | 48% | -129 | 30% | 41% |
| ATL Hawks | 6 | 15% | 44% | Over 226.5 | 85% | 70% | +188 | 22% | 26% |
| UTA Jazz | -6 | 85% | 56% | Under 226.5 | 15% | 30% | -230 | 78% | 74% |
| LA Clippers | -6.5 | 84% | 83% | Over 227.5 | 15% | 66% | -250 | 97% | 89% |
| SAC Kings | 6.5 | 16% | 17% | Under 227.5 | 85% | 34% | +205 | 3% | 11% |
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