clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Best prop bets and analysis for Aaron Rodgers in the NFC Championship

We breakdown the NFC Championship game prop bets for Packers QB Aaron Rodgers.

Brady vs Rodgers. Mahomes vs Allen. Previewing the NFL Conference Championships

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Championship game on Sunday at Lambeau Field. We’ll take an in-depth look at the slew of prop bets to consider for Rodgers in this matchup over at DraftKings Sporstbook.

Passing yards prop: O/U 279.5 (-112)

In 16 games played this season, Rodgers has gone over 279.5 passing yards, ten times. And in the other six games, he’s gone under the yardage prop.

The Buccaneers have allowed six quarterbacks to top 279.5 passing yards this season and rank 21st in overall passing yards per game.

Pick: Over

If this prop stays at 279.5, this is a relative easy over for Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. This season, the MVP candidate has been out of this world, averaging 268.7 passing yards per game. Last week, Rodgers only passed for 296 yards against one of the better defenses in the Rams. Now, he gets to go against a Bucs’ defense that is liable to give up big passing plays.

Passing touchdowns prop: O 2.5 (+145), U 2.5 (-182)

Rodgers has only gone over 2.5 touchdown passes, 12 times this season. In Green Bay’s last three games, the veteran quarterback has thrown for more than two touchdowns in two games.

The Bucs have surprisingly allowed five quarterbacks to top 2.5 passes in the regular season and zero in two postseason games.

Pick: Yes

As we all know, the Bucs have one of the best run defenses left in the playoffs, meaning that the Packers will likely test their secondary early and often. Davante Adams will should see a consistent target share with passes mixed in to Robert Tonyan, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Allen Lazard. If Tampa Bay cannot apply pressure to Rodgers, it might be a long day for their secondary.

Pass completions prop: O/U 24.5 (-125)

Rodgers has only gone over 24.5 pass completions, seven times this season. In Green Bay’s last three games, Rodgers is averaging 21 completions.

The Bucs have allowed five quarterbacks to top 24.5 completions in the regular season and only quarterback in the postseason.

Pick: Under

Last week, Rodgers only completed 23-of-36 passes for 296 yards and two touchdowns against the Los Angeles Rams. We might see that against a Buccaneers’ pass defense that bends but doesn’t break too often. Also, despite the Bucs being good against the run, we should expect the Packers to try to run the ball. In their first meeting in Week 6, Rodgers only had 16 completions.

Throw an INT: Yes (+175), No (-225)

Rodgers ended the regular season with only five interceptions, which was best in the NFL among starting quarterbacks. He last threw an interception in Week 16 against the Tennessee Titans. Coincidentally, the veteran quarterback threw a majority of his interceptions (2) against the Buccaneers in Week 6.

Pick: No

Ever since Rodgers imploded in Week 6 against the Buccaneers, he has been on a different stratosphere. The potential league MVP went 10 consecutive weeks without throwing an interception until Week. On Sunday, he’ll be going against an opportunistic Buccaneers’ defense that forced Saints quarterback Drew Brees into three interceptions.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/MI/PA/WV), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA) or Call or Text the TN REDLINE: 800-889-9789. 21+ (18+ NH). NJ/PA/WV/IA/IN/CO/IL/TN/MI only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.