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Best prop bets and analysis for Tom Brady in the NFC Championship

We breakdown the NFC Championship game prop bets for Bucs QB Tom Brady.

Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers celebrates a first down against the New Orleans Saints late in the fourth quarter in the NFC Divisional Playoff game at Mercedes Benz Superdome on January 17, 2021 in New Orleans, Louisiana. Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images

Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will travel to face the Packers Sunday in the NFC Championship. We’ll take an in-depth look at the slew of prop bets to consider for Brady in this matchup over at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Passing yards prop: O/U 289.5 (-112)

Tom Brady has gone over 289.5 passing yards in eight of 18 games, but has also topped that number in six of his last eight games.

The Packers have allowed a quarterback to top 289.5 passing yards in just two games this season, but have allowed five games of over 285 yards.

Pick: Over

The Packers pass defense is anchored by Jaire Alexander and is a strong unit overall, as they’ve held quarterbacks to the third-fewest fantasy points on the season. The hope for Brady to have elevated numbers this week likely relies on a high-scoring game where the Buccaneers trail. And, with the Packers favored by 3.5-points and the over/under at 51.5-points, there is a real shot for Brady to hit the over on many of these props.

Passing touchdowns prop: O 2.5 (+165), U 2.5 (-210)

Brady has gone over 2.5 passing touchdowns seven times in 18 games this season, with four of his last nine hitting the over.

The Packers have allowed three quarterbacks to complete three touchdown passes in a game this season — Mitch Trubisky, Philip Rivers, and Drew Brees.

Pick: Over

I trust Brady to be ready to go in the playoffs and this week he doesn’t face the defensive line of Washington or New Orleans. There will likely be snow in Lambeau Field, but the wind is supposed to be light. Brady is used to playing in those conditions in big games, and has played his best football on the road this season. I like his chances for a big game as these two heavyweights go toe-to-toe.

Pass completions prop: O/U 24.5 (-112)

Brady has completed over 24.5 passes 10 out of 18 games this year. In the Bucs two playoff wins so far, Brady has hit 22 and 18 completions.

The Packers have allowed over 24.5 completions in five of their 17 games, all coming in wins.

Pick: OVER

For the Bucs to keep up with Aaron Rodgers, I expect plenty of pass attempts and completions for Brady. The Packers offense is playing too well to expect them to have anywhere close to the trouble they had in Week 6 against Tampa Bay.

Throw an INT: Yes (-125), No (+101)

Brady has thrown an interceptions in seven of 18 games and has 12 on the season. Nine of his interceptions have come in losses.

The Packers have intercepted a pass in eight of 17 games. Their 11 total interceptions rank 17th in the league.

Pick: No INT

Brady hasn’t thrown a road interception since Week 1 and the Packers haven’t been ballhawks this season. I expect a clean game from the veteran quarterback.

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