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Analysis and best bets for Josh Allen AFC Championship Game prop bets

We breakdown the AFC Championship game prop bets for Bills QB Josh Allen.

The Favorites: Analyzing Buffalo at Kansas City

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills are headed to Kansas City for their first AFC Championship since 1993. As the centerpiece of the offense, there is a slew of Josh Allen prop bets to navigate on DraftKings Sportsbook. We’ll take an in-depth look at his passing and rushing props for this big-time game.

Passing yards prop: O/U 305.5 (-112)

Allen has thrown for more than 320 yards three times in his last five games but has also thrown for less than 225 twice during that span. He tallied 302 passing yards against the Chiefs during the regular season. On the season, he has topped 305.5 yards in nine of 18 games played.

The Chiefs have allowed a quarterback to top 305.5 yards in five of 17 games played.

Pick: Under

Allen is capable of lighting up elite defenses and has eclipsed 305 passing yards nine times this season. He was stifled by the Chiefs with a completely healthy receiving corps earlier this year. Being on the road against the same Kansas City team that has schemed him out of a game before doesn’t bode well for his production.

Rushing yards prop: O/U 33.5 (-112)

Allen rushed for 421 yards during the regular season, which ranked eighth among quarterbacks. He ranked fourth in rushing attempts with 102. Allen topped 33.5 yards in six of 18 games this season. He also had three games just under, at 33, 32, and 28 yards.

The Chiefs allowed just two quarterbacks to beat this prop this season, they were Allen and Lamar Jackson.

Pick: Over

Allen rushed for 42 yards the last time he faced the Chiefs and could have to get creative with his legs again if Kansas City deploys a similar defensive strategy to the one it used last time.

Passing touchdowns prop: O 2.5 (+145), U 2.5 (-182)

Allen tallied three or more touchdown passes in six games during the regular season and finished with fewer than two in three games and threw for two scores in seven games.

The Chiefs allowed five quarterbacks to top 2.5 touchdown passes this season — Derek Carr x2, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Justin Herbert.

Pick: Under

Three touchdowns is a lot to ask for from any quarterback. Four of his games with three or more touchdowns passes were against non-playoff teams.

Pass completions prop: O 26.5 (+110), U 26.5 (-137)

Allen completed more than 26.5 passes seven times during the regular season and averaged just less than 25 completions per contest. He has 23 and 26 completions in his two playoff games so far.

The Chiefs have allowed more than 26.5 completions in four of 17 games played — Teddy Bridgewater, Tom Brady, Tua Tagovailoa, and Matt Ryan.

Pick: Over

Allen will have to throw the ball a ton regardless of who’s under center for the Chiefs, as the Bills have limited options at running back, and Kansas City’s offense seldom fails to put points on the board. Buffalo will either have to be aggressive to hold the home team off or fight back into a game.

Throw an INT: Yes (-125), No (+101)

Allen threw 10 interceptions during the regular season. The Chiefs are among the league leaders with 16 picks on the year. Only four teams caught more interceptions.

Pick: Yes

Allen’s accuracy has improved tremendously since last season but Kansas City’s secondary is full of ballhawks and is led by Tyrann Mathieu. Allen will have to take some risks in this game and chances he’s hasn’t gone three games without a pick all year.

Touchdown props: Anytime (+135), First/Last (+1100), 2 or more TDs (+750), 3 or more TDs (+4000)

Allen ranked third among quarterbacks with eight rushing touchdowns during the regular season and scored two touchdowns in a game just once.

The Chiefs have allowed rushing touchdowns to six quarterbacks in 17 games this season.

Pick: Anytime

The Bills’ lack of a power runner could lead to some designed runs for Allen in the red zone, as he’s far more physically imposing than Devin Singletary. If Buffalo gets a goal-line play or is inside the five-yard line, my money is on Allen to get the first crack at scoring.

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