clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Best prop bets and analysis for Tyreek Hill in the AFC Championship

We breakdown the AFC Championship game prop bets for Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill.

Rodgers? Tyreek Hill? Playoff Lenny? Who to roster for NFL Championship Weekend

The Kansas City Chiefs will host the 2021 AFC Championship game Sunday, and containing Tyreek Hill is undoubtedly a centerpiece of the Buffalo Bills defensive game plan. There are slew of prop bets to navigate on DraftKings Sportsbook, so we’ll take an in-depth look at his props for receptions, yardage and touchdowns below.

Receiving yards prop: O/U 77.5 (-112)

In 16 games played this season, Hill has gone over 77.5 receiving yards, only eight times (50 percent). And in the other eight games, he’s gone under the yardage prop.

The Bills have allowed seven wide receivers to top 77.5 receiving yards this season and rank fifth-best in overall receiving yards allowed to the position.

Pick: Over

This prop bet for the dynamic Tyreek Hill is hard to gauge because he’s gone over and under the mark 50 percent of the time. In their last meeting earlier this season, Hill recorded three receptions for 20 yards. Even if Tre’Davious White is covering him most of the game, I highly doubt that Hill will be held to 20 yards again.

Receptions prop: O 5.5 (-134), U 5.5 (+105)

Hill has only gone over 5.5 receptions, seven times this season. In Kansas City’s last three games, the speedy wideout is averaging six receptions per game.

The Bills have allowed 10 wide receivers to top 5.5 receptions in the regular season and none so far in the postseason.

Pick: Under

Unlike Travis Kelce, Hill does not need a lot of target to make an impact. With his speed, he can turn/create a big play with only two or three receptions throughout the game. As previously mentioned, the last time these teams played, Hill only had three receptions. The Bills will likely have White defending Hill and possibly try to take everything over the top away.

Touchdown props: Anytime (-134), First/Last (+700), 2 or more TDs (+325), 3 or more TDs (+1400)

Hill has only had one game where he scored at least three touchdowns or more. And he had two games where he recorded two touchdowns. He has caught a touchdown in nine of his 17 games this season.

Pick: First

This pick is more of a gamble than the odds for an anytime touchdown, which is likely at -134. Therefore, why not play it a little risky with Hill scoring the first or last touchdown? If Mahomes can hit on a big pass play early, Hill will likely be the recipient.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/MI/PA/WV), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA) or Call or Text the TN REDLINE: 800-889-9789. 21+ (18+ NH). NJ/PA/WV/IA/IN/CO/IL/TN/MI only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.