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How the public is betting the Bills vs. Chiefs in the AFC Championship

We break down the betting splits for Bills vs. Chiefs in the AFC Championship in the 2021 NFL Playoffs.

The Favorites: Analyzing Buffalo at Kansas City

Two games on Sunday will determine this year’s Super Bowl matchup. Two of the NFL’s most exciting quarterbacks are set to face off in the AFC title game. The reigning champs will host the unexpectedly good Buffalo Bills, and the public is divided when it comes to wagering on the matchup.

So where are sports bettors going as we get closer to the AFC Championship matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs? Let’s take a look. All odds and info were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.

Point Spread

Kansas City is a 3.5-point favorite. It commands 67 percent of the handle and 57 percent of the total bets.

Is the public right?

The Chiefs should be favored to win on their home turf. Getting Patrick Mahomes out of concussion protocol improves their chances of coming out on top, and the uncertainty surrounding his status after suffering a concussion in the Divisional Round likely led to the splits being so lopsided. Buffalo has a chance to cover the spread, but I don’t think Kansas City will give them breaks by missing field goals and two-point conversion attempts. Buffalo’s good luck seems likely to run out.


The point total is installed at 54.5. The public has placed 53 percent of the handle and 51 percent of the total bets on the over.

Is the public right?

The Bills’ defense has taken a big step forward in the playoffs, and this matchup tallied 43 points during the regular season because of the Chiefs’ emphasis on pounding the ground. There’s no telling whether that will continue now that Clyde Edwards-Helaire is approaching a return, but I think the public is split down the middle on the point total here is reasonable. Kansas City didn’t blow out the Chiefs as many expected, and I think the under is more likely than a shootout.


Kansas City is -177 on the moneyline, while Buffalo is +155. The underdog commands 56 percent of the handle and 57 percent of the total bets on moneyline wagers.

Is the public right?

Mahomes playing makes me certain that the Chiefs will come away with this game, but the return of Sammy Watkins and CEH are also big-time factors. I think the initial response to Mahomes getting a concussion might have affected these splits. The game could go either way, but I think betting on the reigning champs on their home turf at -177 is a solid line.

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