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Why I like the Packers ATS vs. the Buccaneers in the NFC Championship

We break down the best picks against the spread for the NFC Championship in the 2021 NFL Playoffs.

 Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) reacts after defeating the Los Angeles Rams during the NFC Divisional Round at Lambeau Field.  Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The Green Bay Packers will host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday in the VFC Championship game. The NFC wasn’t quite as cut and dry as the AFC, but there is little doubt we are getting to see the two best teams playing right now.

DraftKings Sportsbook has the Packers as 3.5-point favorites with a healthy over/under of 51.5.

ATS Pick: Packers

The first time we saw these two teams face off the Packers were ahead 10-0 after the first quarter. They ended up losing 38-10. That collapse was triggered by a rare Aaron Rodgers pick-six and his bad game was very much an outlier for the soon to be MVP.

I believe we can throw their Week 6 game out as an early misstep by the Packers and take a look at how these teams have been playing of late. And if we do that, both teams have shown tremendous offensive ability.

rWhen we look at just their Divisional Round games, I think we have to give the Packers and Rodgers the edge. Green Bay was able to march up and down the field on the Los Angeles Rams, which happen to be the best defense in the league. The Buccaneers also faced one of the best defenses in the league in New Orleans, but they weren’t quite as efficient.

If it wasn’t for Drew Brees being unable to throw the ball further than 10 yards and getting picked off three times, Brady wouldn’t have had short fields and the Bucs would have likely lost. Brady averaged just six yards per pass attempt and 4.6 yards per play. Rodgers on the other hand, average 8.2 yards per attempt and 6.7 yards per play.

Brady has been good this season, but he has had a fairly easy schedule, winning only one game over a winning team. I’d rather this line were at 3, as I still think the game is very close, but I’ll take Rodgers on a heater every day of the week.

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