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GPP fades for Sunday’s Conference Championship slate

We look at a couple of GPP fades for DFS games on the Sunday slate in the Championship round of the 2021 NFL Playoffs.

 Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones (33) reacts after a first down in the second quarter during the game against the Los Angeles Rams at Lambeau Field. Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Winning tournaments takes some luck, but you have to set yourself up for that luck to work out to a big payday. In smaller slates like these during the playoffs, predicting rostership percentages for each player and then fading the correct higher percentage players is key to winning.

Fading a player in GPPs (tournaments) doesn’t mean you don’t play him at all, but it can mean playing him on 20 percent of your lineups versus 80 percent. You can go full contrarian if you want, but hedging into the perfect lineup is fine as well.

Sunday’s slate has Tampa Bay Buccaneers traveling to Green Bay to take on the Packers, who are favored by36.5-points, with a 52-point over/under for the early game.

The late game has the Buffalo Bills at Kansas City, where the Chiefs are favored by 3-points with a 54-point over/under.

Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers, $5,800

We probably can’t take all that much form the Week 6 matchup between these two teams, but I do think we can look at how well CB Jaire Alexander played when matched up with Evans. Alexander didn’t shadow Evans, but he was covering him on 76 percent of his routes per Pro Football Focus. Brady only targeted him once while Alexander was on him, and he didn’t make the catch.

Antonio Brown is out, but Scotty Miller and Tyler Johnson will take his place, and they are good enough for Brady to go to if Evans isn’t open. A touchdown is of course on the table for Evans each week, but I’ll probably fade him with Alexander as his main cover man.

Aaron Jones, RB, Packers, $6,500

The last time these teams met Jones ran the ball 10 times for 15 yards and a touchdown while catching three passes for 26 yards. The touchdown and the receiving work kept him from becoming a complete disaster for fantasy, but it was still one of his worst games of the season.

This week the Bucs will get back run-stuffer Vita Vea and I expect that Aaron Rodgers will be the key to this game. Jones will still get his opportunities and if he can find the end zone, he’s a good bet to be a useful DFS play. But, I’d rather not rely on touchdowns and if Jones is shut out of the end zone, there’s a good chance he has a down game.