As we approach the Wild Card round of the NFL Playoffs, future bettors will begin to place the first bets on players to win the Super Bowl MVP award. Thanks to the new playoff format, we’ll now have a 14-team pool to choose from. In order to make sense of the options, let’s break down some of the favorites, sleepers, and longshots with odds from DraftKing Sportsbook.
The safest bets are going to come from the teams with the best opportunity to make it to the big game. Those two teams are the No. 1 seeds — Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers — which also happen to be the only two teams with a first-round bye. If you believe that either one of these teams will win it all, Patrick Mahomes (+325) and Aaron Rodgers (+625) should be your go-to guys. Twelve of the last 20 Super Bowl MVP winners have been quarterbacks. Otherwise, there have been four wide receivers and four defensive players. While Tyreek Hill (+1800) or Davante Adams (+2500) have a history of stat sheet-exploding games, the production stems from the extraordinary abilities of their quarterbacks. Both Mahomes and Rodgers will be searching for their second Super Bowl MVP awards.
The sleepers section should be considered anyone other than the two favorites. On the AFC side, you could take a shot on Josh Allen (+1000) and his high-powered offense, but a sneakier sleeper that I’m leaning towards is Lamar Jackson (+1600). While his overall statistics have been down season-over-season, he has still exhibited his game-changing capabilities with another 1,000 rushing yard regular season. Assuming the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers win their first-round games, the Ravens will have to travel to Kansas City to face the defending champs. It’s one of the hardest paths to the Super Bowl, but after two weeks of firing on all cylinders, Baltimore may be able to ride momentum all the way to the end.
We can keep it short and sweet with the NFC sleeper (if you can even call him that). Going back to the four-time Super Bowl MVP, Tom Brady (+1500), seems like a logical pick. Although he finds himself on a new team, Tom and Tampa have matured well together throughout the season. As is the case with Lamar Jackson, Brady and the Bucs have the most likely path through the No. 1 seeded Green Bay Packers. Anyone up for a Brady vs. Rodgers playoff battle?
My two longshots are both from the running back spot, a position that hasn’t won the award since Terrell Davis did it in the 1997-98 season. If the Tennessee Titans are able to take it one step further than last season and reach the Super Bowl, they will likely have Derrick Henry (+5000) to thank. The beast of a man runs into the Wild Card round with 2,027 rushing yards under his belt this season. Through the Titans’ three postseason games last year, Henry averaged 148.6 rushing yards. There is no reason we should bet against him slowing down this time around, though it will be difficult for the Titans to reach the big game.
For the NFC longshot, I’m going with Alvin Kamara (+5000). He is coming off of his best season, statistically speaking, with 21 touchdowns (16 rushing and 5 receiving) and 1,688 total yards, all within just 15 games. Meanwhile, Drew Brees’ season has been hindered by injury and it seems as though he will have to battle through the postseason at less than 100%. The Saints are well-coached and have one of the best remaining defenses in the playoffs, which means they have the tools to reach the Super Bowl. If Kamara carries the offense with a dominant performance, he could definitely be crowned MVP. Even half of what he did on Christmas Day would suffice.
Super Bowl 55 MVP odds
|Josh Allen (Bills)||+1000|
|Michael Thomas (Saints)||+4000|
|Ronald Jones II||+10000|
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