On Saturday the Buffalo Bills welcome the Indianapolis Colts to Orchard Park for the team’s first home playoff game since the 1990s.
The Bills have had one of the hottest offenses in the NFL during the back end of the regular season. They’ve scored 38 points or more each of the last three weeks, including 56 last week against the Miami Dolphins in the regular-season finale. Quarterback Josh Allen has really benefitted from the Bills’ acquisition of Stefon Diggs last offseason. The two have teamed up to create one of the best passing units in the league. Buffalo’s rushing attack has been hit or miss, averaging just over 100 yards per game, but there have been times where the ground game is nonexistent. Though they may have to rely on the rushing a bit more than normal as the Colts have a solid pass defense and have picked off opposing QBs 15 times this year.
The Colts are a team built by rushing the ball thanks to rookie RB Jonathan Taylor, who has been explosive in the back end of the season, rushing for seven touchdowns in just the last three weeks. The Buffalo rush defense is probably the weakest area of a very strong overall team, so that’s a mismatch in Indy’s favor. Taylor and his backfield mates average 125 yards per game on the ground while the Bills defense gives up about 125 to opposing rushers.
Buffalo has turned the ball over 22 times this season and the Colts defense has 25 takeaways, so that could be a huge turning point too if Allen or any of the Bills playmakers cough up the ball.
Date: Saturday, Jan. 9th
Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
Notable end-of-season Statistical rankings (Football Outsiders)
Colts: #10 Overall — #12 offense, #7 defense, #10 special teams
Bills: #4 Overall — #5 offense, #12 defense, #4 special teams
DraftKings Sportsbook odds
Colts: +6.5, +260
Bills: -6.5, -305
Fantasy football start/sit advice
Colts D/ST, $2,200
It may sound like a horrible decision to start the Colts defense when they take on one of the best offensive units in the NFL. But the way the Indianapolis defense has played lately and their ability to get turnovers could net a lot of points this week.
Nyheim Hines, RB $4,700
Taylor will undoubtedly do the heavy lifting, but Hines has proved to be a decent change of pace. Considering that he entered the season as the RB3 and is only seeing playing time because of Marlon Mack’s season-ending injury. He has nearly 400 yards on limited carries and has been a huge threat to catch passes out of the backfield.
Gabe Davis, WR $4,000
Davis has been one of the most productive rookies at the position all season, but he’s been overshadowed by Diggs and Cole Beasley. This week Beasley is listed as week-to-week, so it’s unknown if he’ll get a whole lot of reps. Davis had his best game of the season last week, scoring a touchdown and racking up 107 yards in the process.
Dawson Knox, TE $3,200
Josh Allen loves to throw the ball to Knox a whole lot. Last week he got eight targets and he seems to be good for at least one big play each week.