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Ranking the AFC Wild Card games for DFS upside

We break down DFS value compared to betting odds for the AFC Wild Card round in the 2021 NFL Playoffs.

Isaiah McKenzie #19 of the Buffalo Bills celebrates a touchdown with Josh Allen #17 and Ike Boettger #65 in the second quarter against the Miami Dolphins at Bills Stadium on January 03, 2021 in Orchard Park, New York. Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images

It’s time to check out the early wild card round betting lines to see what games we should be mining for fantasy points. We need big over/unders and hopefully close spreads, but we’ll take the top totals if we can’t have both. We rank the four games this week in terms of upside for stackability in your DFS lineups.

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Tennessee Titans

Over/Under 54.5 — Average PPG scored/allowed: 59.9/46.3

The AFC has the two best games this weekend for fantasy points. The Ravens and Titans get the slight nod, as they have the highest over/under and the closest line at 3.5. We’ve seen the Titans beat the Ravens twice over the last year and change, but the Ravens were still able to move the ball, as the Titans have the worst defense going this weekend.

The Ravens, who have the better defense, have had trouble stopping the Titans, especially Derrick Henry. The recent history between these two teams shows that fantasy points are available for the taking, with a ceiling for even more than we’ve seen between these two, as Lamar Jackson has turned it back on of late.

Buffalo Bills (-6.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts

Over/Under 51 — Average PPG scored/allowed: 59.5/46

The Bills averaged 31.3 points per game this year, second only to the Packers. The Colts were ar 28.2 points per game, the ninth-best in the league. Both these teams have good offensive play-callers and upside to put up a lot of fantasy stats.

Philip Rivers isn’t in Josh Allen’s league at this point in his career, but he can run Frank Reich’s offense well enough to move the ball on any team. The Colts defense has been good this season, but they aren’t an extremely talented unit. And they can give up big points against good offenses. I’m not downgrading the Bills fantasy players at all this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) vs. Cleveland Browns

Over/Under 47.5 — Average PPG scored/allowed: 51.5/45.7

The first time these teams met in Week 6, the Steelers put them to bed early, as they beat them 38-7. The next time they played was last week and the Browns beat a Steelers team that was resting multiple starters. The Browns aren’t the same team they were in Week 6, but they also haven’t practiced once this week due to COVID-19 issues. Trying to figure out what they’re going to do this week is tough, especially against a good Steelers defense.

The Steelers took a nose dive at the end of the season, as Ben Roethlisberger and the offense couldn’t get anything moving after starting the season 11-0. The one thing that gave them some confidence was a second half against the Colts where the offense finally got back on track in Week 16. Will we get that offense or the one that lost tow Washington, Buffalo and Cincinnati? In the end, this is a game I’d avoid for fantasy when possible.