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Ranking the NFC Wild Card games for DFS upside

We break down DFS value compared to betting odds for the NFC Wild Card round in the 2021 NFL Playoffs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) drops back against the Atlanta Falcons during the second half at Raymond James Stadium. Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

It’s time to check out the early wild card round betting lines to see what games we should be mining for fantasy points. We need big over/unders and hopefully close spreads, but we’ll take the top totals if we can’t have both. We rank the four games this week in terms of upside for stackability in your DFS lineups.

New Orleans Saints (-10) vs. Chicago Bears

Over/Under 47.5 — Average PPG scored/allowed: 53.3/44.2

The NFC games this weekend aren’t as fantasy friendly as the AFC games. I’m leaning toward the AFC matchups when looking for value plays. But, the Saints have remained a high-scoring team while the Bears defense has been inconsistent at times. And this game has the highest over/under of the NFC matchups.

But, in the end, we can’t expect a back and forth score-fest. Alvin Kamara and Allen Robinson are mostly matchup proof while Michael Thomas should return to his high-target role this week, but there is no doubt that both defense, when playing well, can slow down their competitors with the best of them.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) vs. Washington Football Team

Over/Under 45 — Average PPG scored/allowed: 51.7/42.8

The way the Buccaneers have been playing on offense lately has me high on them to win this matchup. But, Washington’s defense is good and can slow down both the passing and rushing game. They will undoubtedly be a better test than the Falcons and Lions, which the Bucs have faced and stomped in their last three games.

Washington will have one of Taylor Heinicke or Alex Smith at quarterback to go along with a questionable Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin. It’s going to be an uphill battle with those injuries and a strong Buccaneers defensive line. Expecting big numbers all around is too high of an expectation, even for the Bucs.

Seattle Seahawks (-3) vs. Los Angeles Rams

Over/Under 42 — Average PPG scored/allowed: 51.9/41.7

In the not so distant past, this game would have a much higher over/under, but the Rams defense, their hurt quarterback, along with a Seahawks offense that has slowed down immensely, all point to a low scoring game.

We still don’t know if John Wolford or Jared Goff will start for the Rams, but I’d prefer Goff if we want the Rams receivers to have their best chance of putting up fantasy points. Seattle’s defense has played better of late, and Goff has no touchdown passes against them in two games played this season.

Russell Wilson is still Russell Wilson, but he hasn’t been cooking as much as earlier in the season. And the Rams have kept him in check, allowing one passing touchdown and one rushing touchdown to two interceptions in their two matchups this season.