The Phoenix Suns head to Motown to take on the Detroit Pistons on Friday night during a 10-game NBA slate. The Suns have emerged as one of the top teams in the Western Conference (and the NBA overall). The addition of Chris Paul and a commitment to better defense has the Suns at 6-2. The Pistons have not been able to find that type of success early on. Detroit has dealt with injuries and players resting frequently. At 1-7, it’s looking like the playoffs are far out of reach. That’s fine if Detroit can land another lottery pick to add to the rebuild.
Here we’re going to take a look at the free-to-play pool on DraftKings Sportsbook and give some advice for each category.
Who will cover the spread?
The Suns are favored by 5.5 points as of this writing and it feels like a game that should probably be closer to a double-digit point spread. Phoenix has won five of the past six games and the Pistons have lost three in a row — two by double digits to the Bucks. The Suns have the best record ATS this season at 6-2 and have actually had a lot of days off between games recently. That rest coupled with the fact the Pistons lack talent and depth is making me lean Suns to cover.
Suns vs. Pistons: Total Points
The point total as of this writing is 218.5. This number seems a little high to me. The Suns have been one of the better defensive teams this season and the Pistons lack the type of firepower to put up big point totals. Right now, I’d lean under.
Which will be the higher scoring half?
Ahhh, who the hell knows? My guess would be the first half since that may be more competitive. The Suns could be up big at halftime and that could force both teams to ease up. It also might force Detroit to chuck to catch up but who is filling it up? Derrick Rose? Delon Wright? Blake Griffin?
Derrick Rose Points
I’ll go with the under 16.5 on the Rose points prop. For one, he’s expected to play while dealing with a knee injury (not great). The Suns have pretty good perimeter defenders in Chris Paul, Mikal Bridges and Jevon Carter. If Carter is the one tasked with shutting down Rose off the bench, that won’t make it easier for the veteran to score. D-Rose has gone under this number in five of seven games this season.
Jerami Grant Points
Gotta go with the over. Grant is basically the best player on the Pistons. I realize it’s a tough matchup but Grant is averaging 24 points a game and the number for his total is at 18.5. That’s just too big a discrepancy to ignore. Grant has score over 20 points in every game since the season opener. The only reason I’d pick the under in this pool is you’ll get leverage over the field that will likely be overwhelmingly on the over.
Svi Mykhailiuk 3-Pointers Made
Svi is going to exclusively take 3-pointers, so it’s really a matter of whether or not he’ll get the shots. My guess is he will. The Pistons won’t have Killian Hayes again. My issue is the minutes and the matchup. Really, the only way Svi gets over this number is if he gets more than 15 minutes and the Pistons need a chucker to get them out of a hole. That’s possible but it’s also risky against a team with guys like Bridges, Carter, Jae Crowder on the wings. I’d lean under 2.5.
Who will have more points and rebounds?
I’d lean on the Pistons pairing of Grant and Mason Plumlee over Deandre Ayton and Jae Crowder. This is mostly because of the scoring ceiling of Grant. He’s averaging 24 points per game and the Pistons may need to shoot their way out of a bind. Ayton isn’t really getting the offensive touches with CP3 and Devin Booker around. Crowder would need to nail most of his 3-point attempts to get anything on offense. If you look at the averages, Grant and Plumlee are way ahead, so that’s the safer lean.
Who will have the most assists?
Chris Paul is the easy answer. I don’t know if I’d overthink this category much.
Who will score the most points?
Give me Devin Booker going up against a backcourt that includes Delon Wright, Wayne Ellington and Derrick Rose. No one can guard Booker on Detroit.
Which team will make more 3-pointers?
The Suns rank 4th in the NBA in 3-pointers made per game at 14.5. The Pistons allow the 5th-most 3-pointers per game at 14.3. Pretty much all you need to know.
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