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Best lineup strategy for Heat vs. Wizards NBA Showdown

We take a look at the Showdown contest on DraftKings between Miami and Washington, giving you Captain’s Picks and who to fade.

Jimmy Butler of the Miami Heat dribbles the ball up the court against the Boston Celtics during the second quarter at American Airlines Arena on January 06, 2021 in Miami, Florida. Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images

We’ve got a main slate with seven games on tap for Saturday night. The featured Showdown on DraftKings is the Denver Nuggets vs. the Philadelphia 76ers. Because of all the uncertainty surrounding Philly, we’re going to take a look at the next Showdown in the Miami Heat vs. the Washington Wizards. The Wiz are coming off another bad loss to the Boston Celtics on Friday night. Bradley Beal had another big game but it wasn’t enough ... again. The Heat enter rested having not played since Wednesday. Let’s get into some NBA DFS picks for the contest.

Captain’s Picks

Jimmy Butler ($13,200) — This is a pretty cheap price on Butler going up against the worst defense in the NBA. Not only are the Wizards on the second of a back-to-back, but Jimmy Buckets is coming off his best game of the season. That was 26 points and 8 boards in 33 minutes against the Celtics in a close game. This game may not be so close but I don’t think the Heat are going to take the foot off the gas pedal, it’s just not Butler’s style. Given the matchup and Butler’s price, he feels like the safest Captain’s pick.

Duncan Robinson ($8,400) — If you want to get a little weird with your lineup build and it in some of the top plays, Robinson isn’t a bad mid-range Captain option. His floor actually isn’t that bad in this matchup and the ceiling is waaaaay up there. The Wizards allow the most points per game in the NBA and allow opponents to shoot over 40 percent from beyond the arc. Robinson could very well have one of those games in which he fills it up in the first and doesn’t look back. Robinson has hit 9-of-21 3-pointers over the past two games.

Flex Plays

Tyler Herro ($7,600) — I know we’re going heavy on Miami in this one, but come on, there’s a pretty good reason. Stacking the Heat will be popular. Miami has held three opponents to under 100 points this season. The Wiz may not have much left in the tank Saturday night. If that’s the case, what a perfect spot for Herro to get right. He’s shooting a putrid 29.7 percent from 3-point range this season and has only eclipsed 20 points in two games. I’m OK stacking Robinson and Herro, but there is negative correlation. If you roll with Butler at Captain, I like pairing him with Herro and even Bam Adebayo ($9,600).

Rui Hachimura ($5,200) — Okay, we have to give you at least one Wizards player. Hachimura has played five games this season after sitting early due to injury. He’s coming off a season-high 37 minutes, so Scott Brooks is letting Hachimura roll again. This is a good price for a player that spent most of last season around the high $5K and $6K range when healthy. Hachimura has a tough draw against Miami’s front court, and I think this game may not be close. If Washington hangs in there, Hachimura has good upside relative to price.

Fade

Kelly Olynyk ($6,600) — Kelly O has been starting but this price is way too high for the big man. He’s coming off 21 minutes last game, so there’s a chance in close games the Heat roll with a different crunch time lineup. This game may end up being a blowout but I don’t really see the upside for Olynyk at this price point. I’d just stay away and look to some value instead.

The Outcome

The morning spread on this game is the Heat favored by 5.5 points on the road. Given the rest and how the Wizards are playing, my guess is the line moves a few points. That makes me think this game will more of less end in a lopsided Heat victory. That sort of thinking has been wrong before this season, though. Still, it’s tough to argue with the Heat coming off two days rest and the Wiz on the B2B, playing horrible defensively. The Heat need to pick up wins to get into playoff position. It’s early but the defending Eastern Conference Champions are below .500. Give me Miami by a lot.

Final score: Miami 126, Washington 105