The Indianapolis Colts trail the Buffalo Bills in the fourth quarter of their Wild Card game to open the 2021 NFL Playoffs. The Colts trailed 24-10 after giving up a big touchdown to Stefon Diggs. Indy responded in short order with an impressive drive, moving 75 yards on 7 plays to cut the lead to 24-16.
Traditionalists say kick the extra point and turn it into a 7-point game. However, the analytics suggest otherwise. The numbers say converting a two-point conversion at least once in two tries offers worthwhile odds for the scoring team. If you trail by 8 and convert the two, you can win with a touchdown and extra point. If you trail by 8 and fail to convert the two, you still have another chance to tie.
If you want a more thorough rundown of the analytics behind going for two, check out what Chase Stuart wrote on the subject back in 2015.