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Red Sox vs. Rays series: Predictions, odds, picks for Game 4 of ALDS

We go over the betting odds and our favorite picks for Game 4 of the Red Sox-Rays ALDS series.

Tampa Bay Rays center fielder Kevin Kiermaier (39) hits a ground-rule double against the Boston Red Sox during the thirteenth inning during game three of the 2021 ALDS at Fenway Park. Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

In the other ALDS series, we have the Tampa Bay Rays on the brink of elimination after they lost 6-4 to the Boston Red Sox in 13 innings on Sunday night. With the win, the Red Sox lead the series 2-1, with Game 4 tonight at 7:07 p.m. ET on FS1.

There was a controversial play in the Red Sox’s Game 3 win as it appeared that Tampa Bay took the lead in the top of the 13th inning. Outfielder Kevin Kiermaier hit a ball into the gap for what looked like an RBI triple. However, the ball bounced off of Hunter Renfoe and into the bullpen, leading to the umps calling it a ground rule double and no runs on the board for Tampa. Then in the bottom half of the inning, Red Sox catcher Christian Vazquez hit a game-winning two-run home run.

The Rays will use reliever Collin McHugh as an opener, while the Red Sox will give the ball to Eduardo Rodriguez. Can the Rays tie up the series and force a Game 5 in Tampa Bay? Or will the Red Sox pull off an incredible upset to be one step closer to the World Series?

Red Sox vs. Rays odds

Run line: Rays -1.5 (+150), Red Sox +1.5 (-170)
Over/under: 9
Moneyline: Rays +100, Red Sox -120

The Rays will be going with a bullpen game tonight, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Red Sox do the same with Rodriguez getting the start. The 28-year-old pitched in Game 1 and only went 1.2 IP. Rodriguez gave up two earned runs down in Tampa, but was up to 41 pitches. That will not cut it in Game 4 after both teams had to extensively use their bullpens in Sunday night’s extra inning thriller.

Rodriguez hasn’t been good at home this season (5.95 ERA), which is good news for the Rays, who have had success against him. Tampa Bay’s bullpen will be pushed to the limits, but we know their offense is capable of piling on the runs in one big inning. I’m going to go with the Rays to tie it up as I don’t trust Rodriguez against Tampa’s lineup.

Starting pitchers: Collin McHugh vs. Eduardo Rodriguez

McHugh will open up the game tonight for the Rays and pitch an inning or two. The veteran relief pitcher made 37 appearances (7 starts) this season and posted a 6-1 record and 1.55 ERA. In five games against the Red Sox, McHugh has an ERA of 0.75 and put up 11 strikeouts in 12.0 IP.

As for Rodriguez, he enters Game 4 with a 10.80 postseason ERA after his short outing in Game 1 of the ALDS. The 28-year-old has not pitched well at home this season with a 4-4 record and .282 OBA. One of his last few home starts were against the Rays, where he allowed six earned runs, eight hits, and two home runs in 3.2 IP. Tampa Bay went to defeat the Red Sox 12-7.

Prediction: Rays take Game 4 to force a decisive Game 5 at the Trop.

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