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No. 5 Alabama vs. Mississippi State picks and best bets for Week 7

The Crimson Tide and Bulldogs meet as Alabama looks to get back on track.

NCAA Football: Alabama at Texas A&M Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

For the second consecutive week, the No. 5 Alabama Crimson Tide will play a road game as a favorite by more than 15 points when they play the Mississippi State Bulldogs on Saturday night. Nick Saban will look for a different result than last week when they were upset by the unranked Texas A&M Aggies 41-38 on a last-second field goal.

Here’s all the data you’ll want, and a pick for the game!

SP+ Rankings

Alabama: 3 overall, 5 offense, 7 defense
Mississippi State: 27 overall, 46 offense, 21 defense

Injury update

Alabama

LB Drew Sanders - Out (hand)
RB Camar Wheaton - Out indefinitely (undisclosed)

Mississippi State

No injuries to report

ATS/Total

Against The Spread

Alabama: 3-3 ATS
Mississippi State: 2-3 ATS

Total

Alabama: Over 4-2
Mississippi State: Over 2-3

Returning/Overall Talent from 247Sports

Alabama: 1 overall, 1 offense, 1 defense
Mississippi State: 31 overall, 37 offense, 28 defense

Current lines at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Alabama -17
Total: 58.5
Moneyline: Alabama -900, Mississippi State +600

Opening line: Alabama -15
Opening total: 55

Weather

71 degrees, 13 MPH wind, 3% chance of rain

The Pick

Over 57.5

Nobody is better at using a loss to motivate the team quite like Saban, but the 17 points on the road is a bit much, so we’ll go with the point total and take the over. Alabama should be focused keep this big-play passing game going as Bryce Young ranks No. 11 in the country in total passing yards. Combine that with Mississippi State throwing the ball at a higher rate than any team in the country and I’ll be rooting for points.

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