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No. 12 Oklahoma State vs. No. 25 Texas picks and best bets for Week 7

Texas will try to shake off a potential hangover from last week’s loss in Red River when hosting undefeated Oklahoma State.

NCAA Football: Baylor at Oklahoma State Brett Rojo-USA TODAY Sports

The Fox Big Noon Saturday game this week brings us to Austin as the No. 12 Oklahoma State Cowboys pay a visit to DKR Stadium to meet the No. 25 Texas Longhorns. The game, of course, will kick off at noon ET on Fox.

Oklahoma State (5-0, 2-0 Big 12) remained undefeated last week with a 24-14 victory over Baylor. Starting quarterback Spencer Sanders hasn’t been all that impressive and he coughed up three interceptions in last week’s win. Fortunately, running back Jaylen Warren once again picked up the slack on offense with a 125-yard, two touchdown day against the Bears. OSU’s defense has stepped up to the plate this year, and stonewalled Baylor to the tune of just 280 yards of total offense in the win. The Cowboys didn’t force any turnovers but held Baylor to just 4-of-18 successful conversions on combined third and fourth downs.

Texas (4-2, 2-1), oh Texas, what did you do? The Longhorns went into halftime of last week’s Red River Rivalry showdown with Oklahoma holding onto a 38-20 lead, only to see a reinvigorated Sooner offense led by Caleb Williams storm back to stun them in the second half for a 55-48 setback. UT got fantastic offensive performances out of quarerback Casey Thompson, wide receiver Xavier Worthy, and running back Bijan Robinson, who has entered himself into the Heisman conversation. But they only managed 10 points in the second half of that game and that has to be a concern.

SP+ Rankings

Oklahoma State: 33rd overall, 78th offense, 8th defense
Texas: 31st overall, 8th offense, 70th defense

Injury update

Oklahoma State

RB LD Brown Late Oct – Undisclosed
WR Logan Carter Day-To-Day – Undisclosed
RB Dezmon Jackson Day-To-Day – Leg

Texas

OL Denzel Okafor Out For Season – Undisclosed
LB Jacoby Jones Ques Sat – Foot
LB Ray Thornton Ques Sat – Undisclosed
WR Jordan Whittington Ques Sat – Shoulder

ATS/Total

Against The Spread

Oklahoma State: 3-2 ATS
Texas: 4-2 ATS

Total

Oklahoma State: Over 1-3-1
Texas: Over 4-2

Returning/Overall Talent from 247Sports

Oklahoma State: 38th overall, 38th offense, 37th defense
Texas: 14th overall, 11th offense, 12th defense

Current lines at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Texas -3.5
Total: 60.5
Moneyline: Texas -180, Oklahoma State +155

Opening line: Texas -5
Opening total: 59.5

Weather

73 degrees, 10 to 20 MPH winds, wind gusts of up to 25 MPH

The Pick

Under 60.5

There’s multiple reasons to go with the under in this one. The game is kicking off at 11 a.m. local time and it’ll be very windy in Austin that afternoon. You’ll have the strength on strength aspect with a Top 10 offense facing a Top 10 defense per SP+. And you’ll have the potential hangover effect from last week, with Texas being in a situation where they could allow Oklahoma to beat them twice as coaches would say.

All of these factors are the perfect recipe for things to get weird at DKR, creating a game where both offenses aren’t exactly firing on all cylinders. That’s where the under becomes the smart play.

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