No. 3 Cincinnati vs. UCF picks and best bets for Week 7

The Bearcats and Knights meet as the two programs that have come closest to cracking the Playoff from the Group of 5 level.

By Erik Buchinger Oct 16, 2021, 3:45am PDT

With road wins over the Indiana Hoosiers and Notre Dame Fighting Irish, plenty of eyeballs will be on the No. 3 Cincinnati Bearcats as long as they keep on winning. They will get a home matchup against the UCF Knights on Saturday afternoon as three-touchdown favorites.

Here’s all the data you’ll want, and a pick for the game!

SP+ Rankings

Cincinnati: 13 overall, 37 offense, 9 defense
UCF: 53 overall, 22 offense, 88 defense

Injury update

Cincinnati

WR Jadon Thompson - Questionable (undisclosed)

UCF

DL Kalia Davis - Out for the season (knee)
WR Dionte Marks - Questionable (leg)
WR Jaylon Robinson - Questionable (undisclosed)
DL Ricky Barber - Questionable (undisclosed)

ATS/Total

Against The Spread

Cincinnati: 4-1 ATS
UCF: 1-4 ATS

Total

Cincinnati: Over 3-2
UCF: Over 3-1-1

Returning/Overall Talent from 247Sports

Cincinnati: 48 overall, 50 offense, 50 defense
UCF: 62 overall, 53 offense, 67 defense

Current lines at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Cincinnati -21.5
Total: 56.5
Moneyline: Cincinnati -1500, UCF +850

Opening line: Cincinnati -16
Opening total: 56.5

Weather

61 degrees, 10 MPH wind, 62% chance of rain

The Pick

UCF +21.5

I probably wouldn’t take the Knights here if the spread never moved from where it opened, but now there’s a ton of value on UCF with a full three touchdowns. The Knights’ two losses this season were by a single possession, and they lost by just three points in the last two games against Cincinnati. UCF ranks No. 12 in yards per rush attempt against FBS opponents and if they go run-heavy to limit possessions, the Knights have a great chance to cover this number even though the Bearcats should be in blowout mode the rest of the season.

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