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No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 12 Ole Miss picks and best bets for Week 5

It’s Lane Kiffin vs. Nick Saban as the Rebels invade Tuscaloosa.

Mississippi Rebels quarterback Matt Corral talks with Mississippi Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.  Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

The SEC on CBS game this week brings us to Tuscaloosa as the No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide tries to ward off an upset bid from the visiting No. 12 Ole Miss Rebels. The game will kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Ole Miss (3-0, 0-0 SEC) has had two weeks to tackle their approach for how to take down the Crimson Tide and will hope to keep the fireworks show going in Tuscaloosa. The Rebels are a top-five team in offensive SP+ and the top team in offensive drive efficiency, averaging 635.3 yards per game on 7.7 yards per play. As the current odds-on Heisman Trophy favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, quarterback Matt Corral is already just a few yards shy of 1,000 passing yards on the season but has notably cut his turnovers down with zero interceptions so far on the year.

Following a late scare from Florida a few weeks back, Alabama (4-0, 1-0 SEC) did what was expected of them last week by flattening Southern Miss for a 63-14 beatdown. Bryce Young, who currently has the second-highest Heisman odds behind Corral, went 20-22 for 313 yards and five touchdown to one interception against the Golden Eagles. The defense harassed USM quarterback Ty Keyes for nine QB hurries and two sacks, something they’re hoping to replicate when facing Corral.

Here’s all the data you’ll want, and a pick for the game!

SP+ Rankings

Ole Miss: 13th overall, 5th offense, 57th defense
Alabama: 2nd overall, 4th offense, 7th defense

Injury update

Ole Miss

TE Casey Kelly Ques Sat – Undisclosed

Alabama

LB Christopher Allen Out For Season – Foot
RB Camar Wheaton Ques Sat – Undisclosed
RB Brian Robinson Jr. Prob Sat – Ribs

ATS/Total

Against The Spread

Ole Miss: 2-0-1 ATS
Alabama: 2-2 ATS

Total

Ole Miss: Over 2-1
Alabama: Over 3-1

Returning/Overall Talent from 247Sports

Ole Miss: 22nd overall, 20th offense, 33rd defense
Alabama: 1st overall, 1st offense, 1st defense

Current lines at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Alabama -14.5
Total: 80
Moneyline: Alabama -720, Ole Miss +500

Opening line: Alabama -17.5
Opening total: 76.5

Weather

87 degrees, 7 MPH winds SE, 6% chance of rain

The Pick

Alabama -14.5

Last year’s Alabama-Ole Miss game was a track meet that saw the Crimson Tide win 63-48. With Young and Corral guiding their respective offenses, they’re bound to put up a boatload of points again but the difference will be the Tide’s defense forcing the Rebel quarterback into making mistakes. Corral has put up numbers against the 99th (Louisville) and 102nd (Tulane) ranked defenses per SP+ and while he’s capable of putting up good numbers against top-notch opponents, he’s not going to come out of it unscathed.

A couple of turnovers will give Bama enough cushion to take this one by more than two touchdowns.

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