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No. 15 Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State picks and best bets for Week 5

The Bulldogs and Aggies are both trying to avoid an 0-2 start in SEC play.

Syndication: The Commercial Appeal Joe Rondone/The Commercial Appeal via Imagn Content Services, LLC

In the night cap on Saturday, we’ll have two teams trying to avoid sinking to the bottom of the SEC West standings as the Mississippi State Bulldogs travel to Kyle Field to meet the No. 15 Texas A&M Aggies. The game will kick off at 7 p.m. ET on the SEC Network.

Texas A&M (3-1, 0-1 SEC) could not get anything going offensively at Jerry World last week, falling 20-10 to Arkansas. Quarterback Zach Calzada struggled throughout the contest and the Aggies’ only successful offensive drive came as a result of a 67-yard Isaiah Spiller touchdown run. Calzada has drawn criticism since stepping in for an injured Haynes King but TAMU’s woes also lay at the feet of their banged up offensive line. We’ll see if they can get things rolling again at home on Saturday.

Mississippi State (2-2, 0-1 SEC) couldn’t quite replicate last year’s stunner over LSU, falling to the Tigers 28-25 last Saturday afternoon. Down 21-3 at one point in the third quarter, State made a furious comeback attempt late but came up just short when LSU recovered an onside kick and ran out the clock. MSU QB Will Rogers is rounding into the prototypical Mike Leach air raid quarterback, throwing 62 times last week for 371 yards and three touchdowns to one interception.

Here’s all the data you’ll want, and a pick for the game!

SP+ Rankings

Mississippi State: 36th overall, 63rd offense, 21st defense
Texas A&M: 12th overall, 52nd offense, 5th defense

Injury update

Mississippi State

No injuries to report

Texas A&M

WR Chase Lane Ques Sat – Undisclosed
QB Haynes King Late Oct – Ankle
OL Luke Matthews Ques Sat – Undisclosed
WR Caleb Chapman Ques Sat – Undisclosed
OL Layden Robinson Ques Sat – Undisclosed

ATS/Total

Against The Spread

Mississippi State: 1-3 ATS
Texas A&M: 2-2 ATS

Total

Mississippi State: Over 1-3
Texas A&M: Over 0-4

Returning/Overall Talent from 247Sports

Mississippi State: 31st overall, 37th offense, 28th defense
Texas A&M: 11th overall, 10th offense, 8th defense

Current lines at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Texas A&M -7
Total: 46
Moneyline: Texas A&M -320, Mississippi State +250

Opening line: Texas A&M -10
Opening total: 47

Weather

69 degrees, 3 MPH winds SSW, 45% chance of rain

The Pick

Under 46

Jimbo Fisher’s Aggie offense is struggling right now but they still have one of the meanest defenses led by DeMarvin Leal. Their best course of action is mucking up games and turning them into defensive slugfests, which is what they’ll do against a State team that hasn’t exactly lit it up offensively this year. The under is the way to go here.

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