No. 19 Oklahoma State vs. No. 21 Baylor picks and best bets for Week 5

A battle of ranked teams in the Big XII will take place on Saturday night in Stillwater as the No. 21 Baylor Bears will make the trip up to Boone Pickens Stadium to meet the No. 19 Oklahoma State Cowboys. The game will kick off at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.

Baylor (4-0, 2-0 Big XII) is starting to show proof of concept under second-year head coach Dave Aranda and their 31-29 victory over Iowa State last week was the biggest win of his tenure in Waco so far. The Bears held firm with the lead from the second quarter onward and avoided overtime by stopping ISU’s two-point conversion attempt following a touchdown with 24 seconds left in the ballgame. The Gerry Bohanon-led offense was efficient with their time, having been outgained by the Cyclones in both yardage and time of possession. They were helped out by kick returner Tresten Ebner, who housed one for a touchdown. Garmon Randolph earned Co-Big XII Defensive Player of the Week honors with seven tackles and an interception.

Oklahoma State (4-0, 1-0 Big XII) jumped out to a fast start offensively against Kansas State last week, putting up 31 points in the first half and hanging on for a 31-20 victory. Quarterback Spencer Sanders looked the part this week, throwing for just under 350 yards and two touchdowns while also running one in on the ground. Malcolm Rodriguez earned Co-Big XII Defensive Player of the Week honors with Randolph, compiling seven tackles and two fumble recoveries.

Here’s all the data you’ll want, and a pick for the game!

SP+ Rankings

Baylor: 26th overall, 58th offense, 11th defense
Oklahoma State: 35th overall, 70th offense, 13th defense

Injury update

Baylor

LB Terrel Bernard Ques Sat – Knee

Oklahoma State

RB LD Brown Out Indefinitely – Undisclosed
Safety Trey Sterling Out For Season – Undisclosed
WR Braydon Johnson Out For Season – Undisclosed
WR Logan Carter Ques Sat – Undisclosed
RB Dezmon Jackson Ques Sat – Leg

ATS/Total

Against The Spread

Baylor: 3-1 ATS
Oklahoma State: 2-2 ATS

Total

Baylor: Over 3-1
Oklahoma State: Over 1-2-1

Returning/Overall Talent from 247Sports

Baylor: 36th overall, 27th offense, 53rd defense
Oklahoma State: 38th overall, 38th offense, 37th defense

Current lines at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Oklahoma -4.5
Total: 47
Moneyline: Oklahoma State -190, Baylor +160

Opening line: Oklahoma State -4
Opening total: 49.5

Weather

59 degrees, 6 MPH winds NNW, 7% chance of rain

The Pick

Baylor +4.5

Baylor proved last week that it doesn’t need much from their offense to pull out victories as their defense and special teams can handle the load. That sounds about right for a Dave Aranda-coached team and they’re going to try to slow this game down and make things very uncomfortable for Sanders and company on the Okie State sideline. The Bears make this a tight ballgame.

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