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Breaking down NFL betting splits for Week 7 TNF matchup: Broncos vs. Browns

We break down betting splits for the Week 7 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Denver Broncos and Cleveland Browns.

Cleveland Browns quarterback Case Keenum (5) congratulates quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) on the touchdown against the Arizona Cardinals during the second quarter at FirstEnergy Stadium. Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

The NFL opens Week 7 on Thursday Night Football with a matchup that looked great a couple weeks ago, but has lost its luster. The Denver Broncos head to Ohio to face the Cleveland Browns in a battle of 3-3 teams. Kickoff is at 8:20 p.m. ET on FOX and Amazon Prime.

The Broncos won their first three games of the season, but wins over the Giants, Jaguars, and Jets have proven to be empty calories. Denver has since lost to Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Las Vegas. They come into this game also dealing with a banged up Teddy Bridgewater. He is listed as questionable after limping around with foot and quad issues.

The Browns have lost two straight and find themselves extremely short-handed on offense. They will be without quarterback Baker Mayfield and running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt due to injury. Odell Beckham Jr. is also listed as questionable. The list of questionable players also includes offensive tackles Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills, center JC Tretter, defensive ends Jadeveon Clowney and Malik Jackson, and linebackers Malcolm Smith and Mack Wilson.

Odds and splits below are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Broncos vs. Browns, Week 7 betting splits

Betting the spread: The Browns are two-point favorites after opening last week at six. 58% of the handle and 51% of bets are being placed on the Browns to cover, although some of that came in before the lengthy injury list was fully known.

Is the public right? If you got the Broncos at +6 or +5.5, congrats. If you waited until after the lengthy injury report, there’s not nearly as much value. That being said, Denver as a dog heading into Cleveland holds some value if Bridgewater is able to go. I like their chances against Case Keenum and some other key positions playing backups or banged up players. I’d fade the public, although the public has likely been moving toward Denver.

Betting the over/under: The point total is installed at 41.5. 52% of the handle is on the under and 72% of bets are on the over.

Is the public right? The total opened at 44.5, but it’s no surprise injuries have shot it down. At 41.5, the under is looking for a score in the 21-17 range. There’s some gusts in the forecast, but I wouldn’t expect that to have a huge impact. It’s not surprising we see a split on handle vs. bets. I’d lean under on this one.

Betting the moneyline: The Browns are home favorites with moneyline odds at -130. Moneyline odds for the Broncos are at +110. 68% of the handle is on the Broncos to spring the upset and 60% of bets are on the Browns to get the win.

Is the public right? I’m with the money bettors on Denver. I’d rather bet Denver getting an outright upset rather than taking the two points that remains.

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