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South Florida vs. East Carolina picks and best bets for Thursday, October 28th

We didn’t say it was good football. But maybe we can make it profitable football.

South Florida Bulls quarterback Timmy McClain runs upfield during the game between SMU and USF on October 2, 2021 at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, TX. Photo by George Walker/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Are you ready for bad football in bad weather? The recently-raided American Conference is here for you!

While South Florida (2-5, 1-2 AAC) isn’t great, they’ve played much better the last two weeks under starting quarterback Timmy McClain. McClain was held out as a precaution for the second half of the win vs. Temple last week, the first for the Bulls against an FBS team in almost two years.

ECU (3-4, 1-2 AAC) has played plenty of close ones, with five one-score games finishing 2-3. Quarterback Holton Ahlers shows flashes, but also turns it over a ton: He’s got 10 TD’s but six interceptions this season, and the Pirates average a lost fumble per contest. Can USF’s shaky defense do anything about it?

Here’s all the data you’ll need, and a pick for the game!

SP+ Rankings

USF: 110 overall, 109 offense, 112 defense
ECU: 92 overall, 88 offense, 91 defense

Injury update

USF

WR Xavier Weaver is questionable with an undisclosed injury

ECU

No injuries reported

ATS/Total

Against The Spread

USF: 4-3 ATS
ECU: 4-2-1 ATS

Total

USF: Over 4-3
ECU: Over 2-5

Returning/Overall Talent from 247Sports

USF: 72 overall, 55 offense, 55 defense
ECU: 74 overall, 71 offense, 78 defense

Current lines at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: ECU -10
Total: 56.5
Moneyline: ECU -400, USF +300

Opening line: ECU -7.5
Opening total: 58.5

Weather

65 degrees, 8 MPH wind, 60% chance of rain, rain chance increasing as game continues

The Pick

Under 58.5

Two bad offenses in bad weather. Since USF will try to run the ball mostly out of their spread attack, they should be ok in the slop. They’re slower in pace than most college teams, and their defense might appreciate a wet ball from a quarterback that has plenty of turnovers.

But if ECU can get the short pass game going, they’ll find that USF struggles to cover deep down field. Expect plenty of dink-and-dunk with soft coverage from the Bulls, which will keep the clock moving and the scoreboard less so.

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