There are some pretty interesting player props out there for Game 2 of this Red Sox-Rays series. And we must start with the player who has become the new “Mr. October.”
Randy Arozarena over 0.5 home runs (+425)
I get that past results aren’t always indicative of future events, but it does seem a little odd that a man who has his 11 HRs in his previous 19 postseason games has higher odds to homer today than the currently hobbled J.D. Martinez (+380) and the same odds as Enrique Hernandez. Even against Chris Sale, who has struck out Arozarena in four of their six matchups, this line carries decent value.
Shane Baz under 5.5 strikeouts (-115)
You know how the Tampa Bay Rays operate at this point: They come at you with a cavalcade of pitchers who each offer different looks. They don’t have a starter who will give them seven innings, and that’s just fine with them. Look at how Shane McClanahan operated in Thursday’s Game 1 victory: He rolled through five scoreless innings in just 82 pitches and then got the hook. The same fate likely awaits Baz, but he probably has a shorter leash. He has yet to throw more than 82 pitches in an MLB game, and he has finished with five or fewer K’s in two of his three starts. If he gets into any trouble at all, the Rays will not be afraid to pull him at a moment’s notice. You’re getting the same line with the over here, but the under feels safer.
Chris Sale over 4.5 hits allowed (+130)
Opposing hitters are batting a healthy .275 against Sale over his past three starts. And those outings came against the Nationals, the Orioles and the Mets. Now he has to face one of the best offenses in baseball in its home park, and we’re getting plus money if he allows five hits? Yes, please! Unlike on Thursday night, when Boston starter Eduardo Rodriguez was pulled during an uneventful second inning of a 2-0 game, I think the Red Sox are going to ride Sale as far as they can, even if there are a few bumps in the road. This number feels like it’s at least one hit too low.
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