To begin Week 10 in the NFL, we have the Baltimore Ravens heading to South Florida to play the Miami Dolphins for Thursday night football. The Ravens (6-2) have won four out of their last five games, which includes a comeback overtime win over the Minnesota Vikings last week. Meanwhile, the Dolphins (2-7) snapped their seven-game losing streak with a 17-9 win against the Houston Texans.
Can Jacoby Brissett lead the Dolphins to an upset win on a short week? Or will the Ravens pick up where they left off last week in the second half against the Vikings? Odds and splits below are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Betting the spread: The Ravens are 7.5-point favorites. 85% of the handle and 88% of bets are being placed on the Ravens to cover.
Is the public right? Last week, we saw an amazing trend of the underdog either covering the spread or winning straight up. If you were one of those people who bet on any of those teams to cover or win on the ML, then you were profitable.
That being said, I don’t think this same trend will continue this week, starting with tonight’s game. Baltimore has their issues on defense, but offensively they are averaging 27.6 points per game. The Ravens are 3-6 against the spread in their last nine games, but are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games against Miami. But they are 0-2 ATS as the road favorite this season and 1-5 ATS as the favorite. Despite those stats, the Ravens are facing a Dolphins’ team that is giving up almost 30 ppg and cannot run the football, making their offense one dimensional. Miami is 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games and 2-3-1 ATS as the underdog. Back the public with the Ravens.
Betting the over/under: The point total is installed at 46.5. 55% of the handle and 61% of bets are being placed on the over.
Is the public right? The public is definitely on the right side when it comes to the over. The Ravens have been one of the more profitable teams with a 5-3 over/under record. Miami has not been bad either at cash over tickets with a 4-5 record. The point total has gone over in four of Miami’s last six games against Baltimore. In their last three games, the Ravens are averaging 28.3 points per game. I think the Ravens can get us to at least 23 points and the Dolphins may have some opportunities in the passing game.
Betting the moneyline: The Ravens are road favorites with moneyline odds at -335. Moneyline odds for the Dolphins are at +260. 94% of the handle and 91% of bets are being placed on the Ravens to win.
Is the public right? There’s a lot of money behind the Ravens, which makes a lot of sense. They are the better team right now with the better head coach and quarterback, who is playing at a MVP level. We shouldn’t expect a slip up by the Ravens after they got smoked a couple of weeks ago by the Cincinnati Bengals.
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