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No. 2 Alabama vs. New Mexico State picks and best bets for Week 11

The Crimson Tide and Aggies meet with one of the highest point spreads you’ll see in college football.

NCAA Football: Louisiana State at Alabama Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports

One of the best teams in college football will take on one of the worst when the Alabama Crimson Tide host the New Mexico State Aggies on Saturday, November 13th. Alabama will be in the College Football Playoff if they can win each of their final four games including the SEC title game, while New Mexico State lost each of their last nine games against FBS opponents and did not play in 2020.

Here’s all the data you’ll want, and a pick for the game!

SP+ Rankings

Alabama: 3 overall, 3 offense, 9 defense
New Mexico State: 129 overall, 121 offense, 129 defense

Injury update

Alabama

OL Darrian Dalcourt - Questionable (ankle)
TE Kendall Randolph - Questionable (ankle)
LB Keanu Koht - Questionable (foot)

New Mexico State

No new injuries to report

ATS/Total

Against The Spread

Alabama: 5-3 ATS
New Mexico State: 6-2 ATS

Total

Alabama: Over 5-3
New Mexico State: Over 5-3

Returning/Overall Talent from 247Sports

Alabama: 1 overall, 1 offense, 1 defense
New Mexico State: 127 overall, 126 offense, 130 defense

Current lines at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Alabama -51.5
Total: 67

Opening line: Alabama -50
Opening total: 67.5

Weather

54 degrees, 10 MPH wind, 2% chance of rain

The Pick

Under 67

Believe it or not, there are not a whole lot of statistics that show where New Mexico State has an advantage, and it’s tough to expect any team to win a game by at least 52 points, so let’s go after the point total. It’s tough to imagine New Mexico State scores all that much with an offense that ranks No. 118 in yards per play nationally. Alabama doesn’t run the ball all that well, but they should keep the ball on the ground to get this one over with as quickly as possible and cash this under.

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