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NFL picks, Week 10: How the public is betting Sunday’s slate

We break down how the public is wagering on critical games in Week 10.

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) drops back to throw a pass during the third quarter at SoFi Stadium. Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

After a Week 9 schedule in which we saw 10 underdogs cover the spread and nine win straight up on the money line, Week 10 promises to be another exciting week. The week kicked off with the underdog Miami Dolphins defeating the Baltimore Ravens 22-10 on TNF.

Heading into Thursday night’s game, the Dolphins were 7.5-point underdogs against one of the better teams in the AFC. Can the underdogs on Sunday build off of Miami’s momentum? Or will see the favorites hold serve across the league? We are going to look at the spread, money line, or point total of a couple of games and see if the bettors are on the right track.

Detroit Lions (+5.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

With Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger being put on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Saturday night, it appears as if the public has some type of confidence that the winless Detroit Lions can keep it close. As we gear up for the 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff, the Lions are receiving 47% of the handle and 53% of the bets.

Earlier in the week, the Lions were 8.5-9 point underdogs with Roethlisberger under center. The last time we saw Detroit play, they got absolutely destroyed by the Philadelphia Eagles 44-6 on Halloween. However, we’ve also seen Detroit play tough on the road against the Los Angeles Rams and against the Ravens at home.

Cleveland Browns vs. New England Patriots (O/U 45.5)

For some reason, the Browns-Patriots’ game point total is set at 45.5, despite both teams missing their starting running backs. Cleveland is without Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and third-string running back John Kelly. This means that D’Ernest Johnson, who had a standout performance a few weeks ago against the Broncos will get the start.

As for the Patriots, they will not have Damien Harris, who is dealing with a concussion. With no Harris, we should see a combination of Rhamondre Stevenson, J.J. Taylor, and Brandon Bolden in the backfield. Both of these offenses are not prolific, but the over is receiving 45% of the handle and 59% of the bets. The point total has gone over in four of New England’s last six games against Cleveland. I don’t except to see Mac Jones or Baker Mayfield having a ton of success against these two solid defenses.

2021 NFL betting splits, Week 10

Teams Spread % Handle % Bets Total Points % Handle % Bets Moneyline % Handle % Bets
Teams Spread % Handle % Bets Total Points % Handle % Bets Moneyline % Handle % Bets
ATL Falcons +7.5 28% 46% Over 54.5 74% 50% +280 22% 19%
DAL Cowboys -7.5 72% 54% Under 54.5 26% 50% -365 78% 81%
BUF Bills -13 73% 58% Over 47.5 62% 51% -650 83% 88%
NY Jets +13 27% 42% Under 47.5 38% 49% +460 17% 12%
CLE Browns +2.5 50% 59% Over 45.5 45% 59% +125 56% 67%
NE Patriots -2.5 50% 41% Under 45.5 55% 41% -145 44% 33%
DET Lions +5.5 47% 53% Over 40.5 30% 47% +190 26% 21%
PIT Steelers -5.5 53% 47% Under 40.5 70% 53% -235 74% 79%
JAX Jaguars +10 26% 42% Over 47.5 48% 40% +340 17% 11%
IND Colts -10 74% 58% Under 47.5 52% 60% -450 83% 89%
NO Saints +3 26% 23% Over 43.5 60% 68% +140 24% 27%
TEN Titans -3 74% 77% Over 49.5 60% 68% -160 76% 73%
TB Buccaneers -9.5 84% 80% Over 50.5 54% 54% -410 97% 95%
WAS Football Team +9.5 16% 20% Under 50.5 46% 46% +310 3% 5%
CAR Panthers +9 52% 43% Over 43.0 26% 74% +290 11% 9%
ARI Cardinals -9 48% 57% Under 43.0 74% 26% -380 89% 91%
MIN Vikings +3.5 48% 42% Over 53.0 86% 56% +155 67% 40%
LA Chargers -3.5 52% 58% Under 53.0 14% 44% -180 33% 60%
PHI Eagles +1.5 62% 44% Over 44.5 73% 56% +105 69% 47%
DEN Broncos -1.5 38% 56% Under 44.5 27% 44% -125 31% 53%
SEA Seahawks +3 29% 33% Over 49.5 48% 54% +140 36% 38%
GB Packers -3 71% 67% Under 49.5 52% 46% -160 64% 62%
KC Chiefs -3 62% 64% Over 51.5 51% 54% -150 42% 57%
LV Raiders +3 38% 36% Under 51.5 49% 46% +130 58% 43%

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