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NFL playoff picture 2021: Which teams have the best chance to make the playoffs?

Four teams have all but punched their ticket to the playoffs. We break down the analytics and the odds.

Aaron Brewer #62 of the Tennessee Titans reacts on his way to the locker room after the game between the New Orleans Saints and the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium on November 14, 2021 in Nashville, Tennessee. Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

The 2022 NFL Playoffs are still two months away, but there are a handful of teams that are just about ready to punch their ticket. ESPN released their updated Football Power Index (FPI) and four teams are north of 99% to make the playoffs, with three other teams north of 97%.

The FPI projects results based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. It measures team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season.

Coming out of Week 10 Sunday, the Titans, Cardinals, Packers, and Cowboys are all over 99% likely to make the playoffs. Notably, those four teams are the only ones at DraftKings Sportsbook that currently have -10000 odds to make the playoffs.

The next set of teams just above 97% are the Rams, Bills, and Buccaneers. At DraftKings, the Bucs and Rams are -2500 to make the playoffs while the Bills are -2000. Those are strong odds, but they each face some challenges that make it a little more difficult. The Bills are being pushed by the Patriots and the Bucs have the Saints breathing down their necks. Meanwhile, the Rams are in second in the NFC West and are losing out on the tiebreaker to the Cardinals.

On the other side of things, the Jets, Texans, and Lions all sit at 0% chance of making the playoffs and the Jaguars are at 0.1%. At DraftKings, you can no longer bet on not making the playoffs for them, but can still make a long-shot wager on the teams shocking the world and making the playoffs. The Texans and Lions odds of making the playoffs are +50000 while the Jaguars and Jets are at +20000.

Check out the full FPI here and full DraftKings Sportsbook odds to make the playoffs here.