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Breaking down NFL betting splits for Week 11 TNF matchup: Patriots vs. Falcons

We break down betting splits for the Week 11 Thursday Night Football matchup between New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons.

New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) hands the ball off to running back Rhamondre Stevenson (38) during the first half of a game against the Cleveland Browns at Gillette Stadium. Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

To kickoff Week 11 in the NFL, we have the New England Patriots going on the road to play the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Night Football. The Patriots (6-4) have won four straight games after they crushed the Cleveland Browns 45-7 last week at Foxboro. The Falcons (4-5) are looking to rebound after a rough performance last week where they lost 43-3 on the road to the Dallas Cowboys.

Can the Patriots extend their winning streak and keep pressure on Buffalo in the AFC East race? Or will the Falcons pull off the upset and give New England their first loss on the road this season? Odds and splits below are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Patriots vs. Falcons, Week 11 betting splits

Betting the spread: The Patriots are 6.5 point road favorites. 81% of the handle and 78% of bets are being placed on the Patriots to cover.

Is the public right? The public overwhelmingly love the Patriots, who have been on fire over the last month. But as we saw in the last week’s TNF game, when the public team is a heavy favorite, the underdog has a chance. The Patriots are undefeated on the road this season and outscoring teams by 10.7 points per game. New England is 4-1 against the spread in their last five games and 6-0 ATS in their last six games against the Falcons.

The Patriots are also 2-1 ATS when they are the road underdog. The Pats will have Damien Harris back after missing last week’s game to a concussion. The running game will be key in this game as the Falcons are allowing 122.1 rushing yards per game. Take the Pats and the points to start off Week 11.

Betting the over/under: The point total is installed at 47.0. 77% of the handle and 53% of bets are being placed on the over.

Is the public right? Surprisingly, both teams have been profitable when it comes to the over this season. The Falcons are 5-4 against the over, while the Pats are 5-5. The point total has gone over in five out of New England’s last six games. And for the Falcons, the point total has gone in four out of their last six games.

Betting the moneyline: The Patriots are road favorites with moneyline odds at -300. Moneyline odds for the Falcons are at +235. 86% of the handle and 86% of bets are being placed on the Patriots to win.

Is the public right? Could the Falcons pull the upset? Sure, who thought the Dolphins were going to beat the Ravens last week? That being said, the Pats are better on both sides of the ball and have the advantage in the trenches, which is key. New England’s pass defense will make things tough for Matt Ryan and that offense. Then on the other side, the Pats’ running game should be able to get off and open up the passing game for Mac Jones.

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