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NFL picks, Week 11: How public is betting Sunday slate

We break down how the public is wagering on critical games in Week 11.

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) celebrates scoring a touchdown in the third quarter against the Atlanta Falcons at AT&T Stadium. Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Last week, we saw eight underdogs cover the spread and five win straight up on the money line. And there was also a tie in Week 10, so if you had the Lions +5.5, then you came away with the win.

That being said, we might see the same thing take places in Week 11 with another full slate of exciting games on deck in the NFL. Below are going to look at the spread, money line, or point total of a couple of games and see if the bettors are on the right track. All odds and splits courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Miami Dolphins (-3.5) vs. New York Jets

The Dolphins are coming into Week 11 on a hot streak as they have won two straight games. Miami will look to make it three when they travel to MetLife Stadium to play the New York Jets. The Dolphins are surprisingly favorites on the spread and moneyline, despite being 1-4 on the road this season. They are also overwhelmingly receiving 84% of the handle and 72% of the bets.

Bettors must feel as if they can trust Brian Flores and Tua Tagovailoa over the likes of Robert Saleh and Joe Flacco, who will be getting the start over Mike White. I thought that the split would be closer, especially since the Dolphins’ lone road win was in Week 1 against New England. This season, Miami is 2-1-1 against the spread as the road team and 1-2 ATS when they are the favorite.

Dallas Cowboys (+115) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Despite being underdogs on the moneyline and against the spread, the public loves Dallas this week against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Cowboys are receiving 77% of the handle and 64% of the bets on the road. Dallas has been one of the better teams in the NFC and is 3-1 on the road this season.

The Cowboys are also 3-0 against the spread as road underdogs. I understand why the public loves Dallas, especially with the way that Kansas City has looked. However, the Chiefs might be getting their groove back after their road win over the Las Vegas Raiders.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Las Vegas Raiders (O/U 50)

The public thinks we could be on the verge of a shootout on Sunday when the Bengals travel to Las Vegas to play the Raiders. The over is receiving 78% of the handle and 67% of the bets.

Cincinnati’s offense is averaging 26.2 points per game, while the Raiders’ offense is producing 23.3 points per game. Meanwhile, the Raiders defense is giving up an unspectacular 25.6 points per game. But the Raiders have been profitable when it comes to overs this year at 5-4, while the Bengals are sitting at 4-5. I could see this game going over 50 with relative ease. However, you never know, we could fall just short and the game ends at 48 or 49 points.

2021 NFL betting splits, Week 11

Teams Spread % Handle % Bets Total Points % Handle % Bets Moneyline % Handle % Bets
Teams Spread % Handle % Bets Total Points % Handle % Bets Moneyline % Handle % Bets
BAL Ravens -5 42% 65% Over 45.0 30% 46% -220 80% 79%
CHI Bears +5 58% 35% Under 45.0 70% 54% +180 20% 21%
DET Lions +11 47% 59% Over 43.5 17% 59% +375 20% 20%
CLE Browns -11 53% 41% Under 43.5 83% 41% -510 80% 80%
GB Packers -1.5 79% 78% Over 48.0 34% 49% -115 79% 68%
MIN Vikings +1.5 21% 22% Under 48.0 66% 51% -105 21% 32%
HOU Texans +10 33% 30% Over 44.5 62% 51% +340 11% 10%
TEN Titans -10 67% 70% Under 44.5 38% 49% -450 89% 90%
IND Colts +7 39% 62% Over 50.5 51% 56% +250 46% 30%
BUF Bills -7 61% 38% Under 50.5 49% 44% -320 54% 70%
MIA Dolphins -3.5 84% 72% Over 44.5 51% 48% -180 61% 57%
NY Jets +3.5 16% 28% Under 44.5 49% 52% +155 39% 43%
NO Saints +2 55% 52% Over 43.0 58% 68% +115 52% 61%
PHI Eagles -2 45% 48% Under 43.0 42% 32% -135 48% 39%
SF 49ers -6.5 70% 76% Over 45.0 27% 41% -290 86% 79%
JAX Jaguars +6.5 30% 24% Under 45.0 73% 59% +230 14% 21%
WAS Football Team +3 47% 60% Over 43.0 65% 63% +140 51% 39%
CAR Panthers -3 53% 40% Under 43.0 35% 37% -160 49% 61%
CIN Bengals -1 73% 74% Over 50.0 78% 67% -110 25% 59%
LV Raiders +1 27% 26% Under 50.0 22% 33% -110 75% 41%
ARI Cardinals -2 35% 55% Over 48.5 44% 32% -125 52% 60%
SEA Seahawks +2 65% 45% Under 48.5 56% 68% +105 48% 40%
DAL Cowboys +2.5 52% 66% Over 56.5 84% 71% +115 77% 64%
KC Chiefs -2.5 48% 34% Under 56.5 16% 29% -135 23% 36%
PIT Steelers +5.5 12% 41% Over 47.0 29% 40% +205 12% 25%
LA Chargers -5.5 88% 59% Under 47.0 71% 60% -255 88% 75%

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